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Game Recap
BUF1
DET2
DET beat BUF 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 3.19. BUF outshot DET 32 to 23. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Talbot stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
BUFDET
32Shots on goal23
3.19Expected goals2.13
67Shot attempts57
235v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play2/4
17Hits11
18Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.19 xGDET 2.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 2:20 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:14 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:30 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:14 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:10 | 1:46 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 1:30 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:46 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:46 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:10 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:33 | 2:17 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:24 | 0:44 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:04 | 1:43 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 57:20 | Loss |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:30 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:30 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:55 | 1:30 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:30 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:16 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 1:09 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:02 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:18 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:15 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:05 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:02 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:02 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:27 | 1:32 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:32 | 0:11 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:09 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:09 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.4, DET 3.5 | BUF 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 31.3, DET 29.3 | BUF 32, DET 23 |
| Win chance | DET 53% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 4 | 1.02 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 3.0 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.8 | 5 | 0.88 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.7 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.