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Game Recap
BUF3
DET7
DET beat BUF 7-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 2.14. P. Kane led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). R. Dahlin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. P. Mrazek stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| DET | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
- 1st 7:38BUFT. Thompson0.05 xG
- 1st 12:36DETM. Kasper0.12 xG
- 1st 15:40DETA. DeBrincat0.06 xG
- 1st 19:07DETP. KanePP0.10 xG
- 1st 19:25BUFJ. Norris0.23 xG
- 2nd 10:54DETV. Tarasenko0.07 xG
- 2nd 18:12BUFZ. BensonPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 1:36DETP. KanePP0.30 xG
- 3rd 5:39DETM. Kasper0.21 xG
- 3rd 14:31DETM. SeiderPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
BUFDET
26Shots on goal29
2.14Expected goals4.27
55Shot attempts60
205v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play3/6
16Hits17
10Blocked shots20
79Penalty minutes67
9Giveaways13
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.14 xGDET 4.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 10 | 17:06 | 1:12 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 12 | 16:23 | 1:15 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:41 | 2:50 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 17:25 | 1:47 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 16:20 | 0:49 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:59 | 3:07 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:31 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 14 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:31 | 2:40 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:53 | 3:06 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:32 | 0:31 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 10 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:51 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:47 | 3:36 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 10 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 29 | 22 | 7 | .759 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kane | RW | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:21 | 5:50 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 15:13 | 4:11 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 5:39 |
| M. Kasper | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 10 | 15:25 | 2:01 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 5:49 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:36 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13:58 | 2:18 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:19 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:02 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 10:24 | 1:07 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 24:30 | 5:10 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 12 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:45 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 12 | 15:58 | 0:05 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, DET 3.4 | BUF 3, DET 7 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 26.9, DET 30.1 | BUF 26, DET 29 |
| Win chance | DET 56% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 1 | 1.00 | 3 | 36% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 1 | 0.89 | 4 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.9 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 5 | 0.92 | 5 | 28% | 2 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.4 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 3 | 0.51 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.4 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.6 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.