Game Recap: BUF 2, EDM 3, January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat BUF 3-2, with the chances close: 4.25 expected goals to 4.55. R. Nugent-Hopkins led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J.Kulich had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Skinner stopped 39 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	0	2
EDM	1	1	1	3

1st 16:28BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG
1st 16:45EDMJ. Skinner0.28 xG
2nd 7:46BUFJ.Kulich0.09 xG
2nd 13:20EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.07 xG
3rd 8:59EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.17 xG

Team Stats

BUFEDM

41Shots on goal34

4.55Expected goals4.25

73Shot attempts57

285v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play0/1

29Hits15

7Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways14

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.55 xGEDM 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF40 on goal, 2 scored

EDM33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	19:19	2:49
J.Kulich	C	1	0	1	7	0	1	0	0	16:22	2:44
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	4	3	0	+1	0	16:12	2:46
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:05	2:41
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:00	0:15
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:34	3:14
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:02	3:15
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	2	16:56	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	16:53	3:11
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:54	3:02
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	9:07	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:07	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:32	2:09
J. Bryson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:18	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	24:06	3:51
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	21:01	0:03
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	20:22	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	34	31	3	.912	58:05	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	15:51	1:53
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	10:44	1:18
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	10:33	0:00
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:36	1:44
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	18:44	1:31
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:39	0:16
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:37	0:29
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	15:03	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:51	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:09	0:42
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	6:49	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	24:22	1:45
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	23:41	0:15
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	+2	0	23:00	0:07
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:56	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	20:14	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	41	39	2	.951	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan McLeod BUF Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.7, EDM 3.7	BUF 2, EDM 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	BUF 25.3, EDM 32.6	BUF 41, EDM 34
Win chance	EDM 66%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	1	0.92	0	41%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	3	1.60	0	47%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.0	5	0.85	0	36%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	3	0.94	1	17%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	0	0.66	0	22%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.2	3	0.61	0	23%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	3	0.46	1	11%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	3	0.64	1	26%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.1	2	0.63	0	14%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.1	4	0.53	1	21%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.0	2	0.66	1	25%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	3	0.50	1	12%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	4	0.85	2	25%	2
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	7	0.35	1	18%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	1	0.51	0	20%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.8	2	0.48	1	21%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.37	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	3	0.35	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.39	0	16%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	0	0.46	0	21%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	5	0.37	0	11%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	2	0.36	1	7%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	3	0.39	0	17%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.40	0	16%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.39	0	11%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	4	0.33	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.0	1	0.30	1	12%	0
EDM N. Philp	1.0	1	0.27	0	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	3	0.18	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	1	0.31	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	1	0.25	1	3%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	1	0.11	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.