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Game Recap
BUF1
LAK0
BUF beat LAK 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.40 expected goals to 3.44. A. Kopitar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 23 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 3rd 0:38BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
BUFLAK
19Shots on goal23
1.40Expected goals3.44
49Shot attempts67
155v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/5
19Hits19
18Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways15
3Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.40 xGLAK 3.44 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:23 | 3:46 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:29 | 4:19 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:57 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 4:19 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:48 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:02 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:02 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:02 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 1:21 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:48 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:46 | 4:28 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:39 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:47 | 1:10 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:02 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 23 | 23 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 6:36 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 6:27 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 6:31 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:02 | 5:44 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:56 | 6:21 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 3:32 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 3:39 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 3:26 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 3:08 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 4:03 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:33 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 57:23 | Loss |
| E. Portillo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, LAK 3.2 | BUF 1, LAK 0 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.9, LAK 30.4 | BUF 19, LAK 23 |
| Win chance | LAK 57% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 3 | 0.94 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.6 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 5 | 0.88 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.4 | 1 | 0.05 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.