Game Recap: BUF 4, LAK 1, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

BUF beat LAK 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.88 expected goals to 2.06. Z. Benson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Wright had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	1	3	4
LAK	1	0	0	1

1st 10:48LAKA. PanarinPP0.09 xG
2nd 4:05BUFT. Thompson0.09 xG
3rd 11:12BUFS. Carrick0.14 xG
3rd 12:11BUFR. DahlinPP0.07 xG
3rd 17:35BUFZ. BensonEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

BUFLAK

33Shots on goal27

2.88Expected goals2.06

57Shot attempts54

285v5 shots on goal19

1/1Power play1/3

15Hits27

16Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes0

10Giveaways11

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.88 xGLAK 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF33 on goal, 4 scored

LAK27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Benson	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	15:16	0:00
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:11	0:59
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	15:38	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:03	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	3	3	1	+2	0	14:47	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	14:40	0:59
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	20:06	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:01	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:44	0:59
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:30	0:59
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	11:43	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	23:07	0:59
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	2	21:40	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	2	13:59	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:20	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:02	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+2	0	16:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	22:06	4:50
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-2	21:06	4:11
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	19:52	3:47
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	18:45	1:44
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	18:32	3:06
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	15:00	0:39
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:47	1:08
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	13:44	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	12:22	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	10:00	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	9:45	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	9:06	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	21:05	1:39
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:48	0:05
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-2	20:38	3:11
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	18:11	0:05
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	17:28	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	17:11	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	32	30	3	.938	58:35	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson17:07A. Tuch16:15P. Krebs14:37

Line 2J. Norris12:59N. Ostlund12:49J. Doan11:29

Line 3S. Carrick13:17B. Malenstyn12:45Z. Benson13:37

Line 4J. Zucker11:11J. Quinn11:27R. McLeod9:59

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:47R. Dahlin19:36

Pair 2O. Power19:33B. Byram20:11

Pair 3L. Stanley12:47Z. Metsa13:59

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:31A. Panarin16:04A. Kempe15:43

Line 2Q. Byfield14:52A. Laferriere14:37T. Moore13:39

Line 3J. Armia13:27S. Laughton13:09J. Wright12:09

Line 4J. Malott10:00T. Ward9:45S. Helenius9:06

Pair 1D. Doughty19:01M. Anderson20:31

Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:48C. Ceci16:54

Pair 3J. Edmundson15:42B. Clarke16:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJason Zucker BUF Plays near home (born in Newport Beach)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, LAK 3.0	BUF 4, LAK 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	BUF 26.3, LAK 28.4	BUF 33, LAK 27
Win chance	BUF 50%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.1	3	1.23	1	37%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	3	0.93	1	37%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	1	0.94	1	36%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.9	2	0.60	0	25%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.4	5	0.56	0	24%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	4	0.76	0	28%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.61	0	23%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.1	1	0.74	1	15%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	3	0.57	0	11%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	3	0.58	0	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	0	0.62	0	23%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	2	0.55	0	18%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	1	0.79	1	25%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	1	0.41	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.5	0	0.60	1	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.40	2	12%	1
BUF O. Power	1.4	3	0.37	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	2	0.44	0	11%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.2	4	0.21	0	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.45	0	10%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.62	0	17%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.35	1	7%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.1	1	0.30	0	14%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.1	3	0.29	0	6%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.0	2	0.43	0	16%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.0	3	0.22	1	10%	1
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	2	0.35	1	10%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.26	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	3	0.17	1	7%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.21	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.7	1	0.16	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.