Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
BUF1
MTL6
MTL beat BUF 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.46. P. Laine scored three for MTL. M. Matheson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Montembeault stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
- 1st 0:19MTLJ. Armia0.35 xG
- 1st 6:26MTLP. LainePP0.12 xG
- 2nd 3:43BUFD. Cozens0.09 xG
- 2nd 5:54MTLJ. Slafkovský0.28 xG
- 2nd 9:45MTLP. LainePP0.16 xG
- 2nd 10:55MTLP. LainePP0.15 xG
- 2nd 19:15MTLJ. Anderson0.18 xG
Team Stats
BUFMTL
21Shots on goal27
2.46Expected goals3.47
62Shot attempts51
165v5 shots on goal21
0/5Power play3/6
26Hits7
13Blocked shots23
12Penalty minutes10
11Giveaways10
8Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.46 xGMTL 3.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 5:43 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:48 | 2:38 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 5:36 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:14 | 4:43 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 5:26 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:34 | 1:10 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 2:32 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 1:44 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:39 | 3:04 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:11 | 4:23 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:01 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 21 | 15 | 6 | .714 | 40:00 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 20:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Laine | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:12 | 3:38 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 3:41 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 3:40 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 3:40 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:01 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:55 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:54 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 3:26 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 3:24 |
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:47 | 3:30 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 3:30 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 3:38 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 3:49 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:56 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:05 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:38 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.3, MTL 3.0 | BUF 1, MTL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 29.9, MTL 27.0 | BUF 21, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | BUF 54% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.4 | 5 | 0.75 | 3 | 28% | 3 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 0 | 0.86 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.