MTL beat BUF 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.15 expected goals to 4.67. BUF outshot MTL 36 to 20. N. Suzuki led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). R. Dahlin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Montembeault stopped 33 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| MTL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:42MTLC. CaufieldPP0.15 xG
- 1st 11:41MTLN. SuzukiSH0.16 xG
- 1st 13:42MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 18:07BUFA. Tuch0.43 xG
- 3rd 3:24BUFT. Thompson0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:59BUFR. Dahlin0.05 xG
- OT 1:21MTLM. Matheson0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 4.67 xGMTL 3.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:22 | 6:29 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 6:45 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 6:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:19 | 2:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:23 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 6:38 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:02 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 1:14 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:26 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:04 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 25:34 | 4:58 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 24:59 | 1:20 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 2:41 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 20 | 16 | 4 | .800 | 60:24 | OT loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 5:30 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 5:33 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 5:30 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:51 | 2:52 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:03 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:48 | 0:02 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 2:50 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:14 | 2:50 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 5:31 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 2:51 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28:22 | 2:46 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 5:39 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:18 | 0:08 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 61:03 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, MTL 3.1 | BUF 3, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.3, MTL 27.5 | BUF 36, MTL 20 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 6 | 0.75 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.77 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 4 | 0.94 | 4 | 28% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.76 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.