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Game Recap
BUF4
MTL2
BUF beat MTL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.28 expected goals to 3.29. MTL outshot BUF 34 to 17. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Matheson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 0:44BUFJ. Zucker0.12 xG
- 1st 14:58BUFB. MalenstynSH0.26 xG
- 2nd 2:25BUFZ. Benson0.53 xG
- 2nd 3:56MTLC. Caufield0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:20MTLN. Suzuki0.39 xG
- 3rd 19:16BUFP. KrebsEN0.32 xG
Team Stats
BUFMTL
17Shots on goal34
3.28Expected goals3.29
42Shot attempts66
135v5 shots on goal31
0/2Power play0/3
26Hits28
18Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes8
9Giveaways12
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.28 xGMTL 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 1:04 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:27 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:09 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:04 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:02 | 2:02 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:49 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| K. Helenius | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 1:16 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:24 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:03 | 0:05 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 27:21 | 1:43 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 26:25 | 0:58 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 22:53 | 1:04 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 6:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ellis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:16 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 3:10 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 14:18 | 2:09 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:50 | 3:14 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 3:14 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:06 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:06 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:03 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:56 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:03 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:03 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:20 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 24:14 | 3:24 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:26 | 1:58 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:03 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 58:33 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 2A. Tuch13:32T. Thompson13:21J. Doan12:20
Line 3N. Ostlund10:33Z. Benson9:58K. Helenius9:36
Line 4J. Greenway8:49B. Malenstyn9:04P. Krebs10:10
Pair 2M. Samuelsson18:20R. Dahlin19:03
Pair 3J. Bryson6:17M. Kesselring10:45
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki14:44C. Caufield12:41K. Dach12:35
Line 2J. Slafkovský12:56I. Demidov12:01O. Kapanen12:04
Line 3B. Gallagher11:13J. Anderson12:18P. Danault10:57
Pair 1M. Matheson20:33N. Dobson18:06
Pair 2A. Carrier15:56K. Guhle12:11
Pair 3L. Hutson18:19J. Struble9:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.3, MTL 3.5 | BUF 4, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 26.0, MTL 28.1 | BUF 17, MTL 34 |
| Win chance | MTL 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.0 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 5 | 0.48 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 4 | 0.96 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.