Game Recap: BUF 2, MTL 6, May 10, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalSun, May 10, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL6

MTL beat BUF 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.36 expected goals to 3.47. MTL outshot BUF 36 to 28. A. Newhook led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Dach had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Dobes stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	0	2
MTL	1	3	2	6

1st 0:53BUFT. Thompson0.37 xG
1st 15:31MTLA. Newhook0.15 xG
2nd 6:05MTLC. CaufieldPP0.14 xG
2nd 10:43MTLZ. Bolduc0.25 xG
2nd 12:17MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.23 xG
2nd 14:46BUFR. DahlinPP0.08 xG
3rd 8:46MTLK. Dach0.31 xG
3rd 15:14MTLA. NewhookEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

BUFMTL

28Shots on goal36

3.47Expected goals5.36

58Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play2/6

21Hits25

15Blocked shots14

42Penalty minutes38

13Giveaways13

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.47 xGMTL 5.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF28 on goal, 2 scored

MTL36 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	-2	0	21:06	4:38
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	4	15:32	4:42
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	6	1	-2	2	20:06	0:50
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	12	18:07	4:38
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:53	0:23
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:28	4:39
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:51	0:53
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	13:45	0:31
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:31	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	12:15	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:47	0:31
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	6:17	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	-2	2	23:04	5:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	23:05	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:32	0:55
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:42	0:20
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	17:22	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	12	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	36	31	5	.861	58:39	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	17:17	5:24
A. Newhook	C	2	0	2	4	4	0	+2	2	16:43	3:08
J. Evans	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	0	13:12	0:00
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	19:44	5:27
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	18:12	5:27
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	14:52	6:24
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:39	0:47
A. Texier	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:38	3:23
J. Veleno	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	12:18	1:01
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	2	12:12	2:33
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	16	10:43	1:46
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:26	0:44
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	2	20:35	5:41
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	24:31	1:16
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	25:06	0:12
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	14	17:48	0:12
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:45	2:58
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	7:10	0:32

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	28	26	2	.929	59:53	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson14:55P. Krebs15:25A. Tuch15:24

Line 2Z. Benson12:12J. Norris11:13J. Doan10:19

Line 3R. McLeod8:40J. Quinn9:39J. Zucker5:39

Line 4J. Greenway7:34B. Malenstyn6:18S. Carrick5:59

Pair 1O. Power14:19B. Byram16:10

Pair 2L. Stanley10:04C. Timmins11:17

Pair 3M. Samuelsson14:51R. Dahlin16:07

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki11:45J. Slafkovský11:57C. Caufield10:50

Line 2P. Danault11:35J. Anderson12:16A. Texier10:15

Line 3J. Veleno11:17K. Dach9:39Z. Bolduc8:57

Line 4J. Evans8:14A. Newhook8:41I. Demidov7:52

Pair 1M. Matheson17:12A. Carrier16:57

Pair 2N. Dobson12:04L. Hutson13:37

Pair 3K. Guhle16:19A. Xhekaj6:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, MTL 3.2	BUF 2, MTL 6
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	BUF 27.7, MTL 26.2	BUF 28, MTL 36
Win chance	BUF 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	0.92	2	38%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	3	0.86	2	36%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	4	0.85	0	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	3	0.76	2	17%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	4	0.79	1	27%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	4	1.05	1	30%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.2	1	0.57	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.9	4	0.53	1	22%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	0	0.59	0	24%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.9	1	0.49	0	10%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	3	0.56	0	18%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	1	0.70	1	21%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.7	1	0.94	2	13%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.62	0	27%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	0	0.44	0	10%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	4	0.46	2	21%	2
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	4	0.34	0	19%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.46	0	12%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	0	0.34	0	7%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.36	1	15%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	3	0.38	1	15%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.45	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	3	0.37	2	14%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	1	0.37	1	16%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	2	0.57	0	18%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	1	0.32	0	8%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.0	4	0.32	1	13%	1
BUF L. Stanley	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.9	2	0.19	0	9%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.31	1	7%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.8	1	0.16	1	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	2	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.