Game Recap: BUF 3, MTL 2, May 12, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF3

FinalTue, May 12, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL2

BUF beat MTL 3-2, with the chances close: 3.24 expected goals to 3.62. MTL outshot BUF 31 to 22. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Newhook had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. U. Luukkonen stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	1	1	3
MTL	2	0	0	2

1st 6:32BUFM. Samuelsson0.20 xG
1st 10:08MTLA. Newhook0.28 xG
1st 19:47MTLC. CaufieldPP0.17 xG
2nd 7:00BUFT. ThompsonPP0.01 xG
3rd 4:41BUFZ. BensonPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

BUFMTL

22Shots on goal31

3.24Expected goals3.62

43Shot attempts75

145v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play1/7

23Hits26

27Blocked shots6

16Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways15

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.24 xGMTL 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 3 scored

MTL31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	2	19:14	3:12
J. Doan	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	15:30	3:15
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	14:21	3:15
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	12:41	1:21
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	21:58	1:22
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:47	0:01
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:06	3:41
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:53	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:14	1:21
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	10:52	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	9:58	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:35	0:54
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	2	6	6	0	0	23:47	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	2	2	4	+1	4	19:29	2:55
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	23:43	0:02
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	21:38	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	6	20:42	1:41
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	5	3	0	0	0	23:10	9:08
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:21	8:43
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:45	8:49
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	5	3	0	+1	0	14:26	1:37
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	12:47	0:05
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	24:34	9:10
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:35	0:05
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:42	0:08
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:59	1:45
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	9:39	1:58
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:51	2:09
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:42	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	28:02	8:49
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	24:09	2:20
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	22:01	0:28
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	6	17:00	0:10
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:16	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	22	19	3	.864	57:17	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson12:21P. Krebs13:23A. Tuch11:39

Line 2J. Quinn10:25K. Helenius12:26J. Zucker10:53

Line 3J. Doan10:57J. Norris9:14Z. Benson10:25

Line 4B. Malenstyn4:23R. McLeod3:44J. Greenway4:12

Pair 1O. Power17:02B. Byram15:04

Pair 2M. Samuelsson13:56C. Timmins12:34

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki11:06J. Slafkovský11:52C. Caufield9:53

Line 2P. Danault10:37J. Anderson11:55A. Texier10:43

Line 3J. Evans9:49A. Newhook9:05I. Demidov8:20

Line 4J. Veleno6:40Z. Bolduc7:41K. Dach6:41

Pair 1N. Dobson17:22L. Hutson14:59

Pair 2M. Matheson15:49A. Carrier14:54

Pair 3K. Guhle10:54A. Xhekaj3:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayZach Benson BUF Turns 21 that day1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.3, MTL 3.3	BUF 3, MTL 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	BUF 27.7, MTL 26.8	BUF 22, MTL 31
Win chance	MTL 50%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	2	0.94	2	39%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.86	1	36%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	4	0.82	0	33%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	2	0.78	1	18%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	5	0.78	1	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	2	1.05	0	30%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.2	3	0.57	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	0	0.55	2	22%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.9	1	0.58	1	18%	1
MTL N. Dobson	1.8	2	0.49	0	10%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	2	0.70	1	20%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.7	5	0.50	1	22%	1
BUF J. Zucker	1.7	1	0.52	0	21%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	0	0.91	1	12%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	3	0.44	0	9%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	0	0.57	1	26%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	3	0.35	0	19%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.4	3	0.32	0	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	2	0.44	0	12%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	2	0.39	0	16%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	0	0.34	0	7%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	0	0.45	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	0	0.38	1	13%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.2	0	0.38	0	16%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.32	1	8%	1
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	1	0.31	0	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	0	0.54	0	17%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.1	1	0.34	0	14%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.33	0	7%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	2	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF L. Schenn	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.