BUF beat MTL 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.37 expected goals to 2.29. BUF outshot MTL 36 to 22. R. Dahlin led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). Z. Benson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. U. Luukkonen stopped 18 of 18.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 4.37 xGMTL 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:14 | 4:17 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:18 | 4:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 10 | 20:04 | 3:53 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:52 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:56 | 1:54 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 15:27 | 2:13 |
| K. Helenius | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:10 | 2:20 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 3:30 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 6:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:56 | 3:23 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:08 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:33 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:57 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 10:14 | |
| U. Luukkonen | 18 | 18 | 0 | 1.000 | 49:41 | Win |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 12 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 3:42 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:26 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 3:47 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 3:37 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:39 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:47 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:41 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 11:24 | 1:03 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:28 | 4:12 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 22:05 | 0:14 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:22 | 0:17 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 12 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
MTL
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.3, MTL 3.3 | BUF 8, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.7, MTL 26.9 | BUF 36, MTL 22 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 6 | 0.92 | 4 | 38% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.0 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 5 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.2 | 3 | 0.58 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.9 | 6 | 0.60 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.8 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF K. Helenius | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.5 | 1 | 0.07 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.