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Game Recap
BUF4
NSH6
NSH beat BUF 6-4, with the chances close: 3.15 expected goals to 3.12. J. Marchessault led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Annunen stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| NSH | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 6:57NSHT. Novak0.10 xG
- 1st 9:26NSHB. Skjei0.10 xG
- 1st 15:21BUFB. Byram0.11 xG
- 1st 18:25BUFR. Dahlin0.09 xG
- 2nd 14:31NSHF. ForsbergPP0.25 xG
- 2nd 15:13NSHB. Skjei0.14 xG
- 2nd 17:43BUFA. Tuch0.10 xG
- 3rd 6:58NSHF. Forsberg0.13 xG
- 3rd 12:30BUFD. CozensPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:24NSHJ. MarchessaultEN0.71 xG
Team Stats
BUFNSH
29Shots on goal23
3.12Expected goals3.15
77Shot attempts47
235v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play1/2
22Hits33
14Blocked shots26
6Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways16
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.12 xGNSH 3.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 1:06 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:40 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:58 | 0:51 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:46 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:07 | 2:38 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 18:59 | 2:18 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:33 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:44 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:02 | 2:20 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:02 | 1:04 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 17 | 5 | .773 | 58:15 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:39 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:09 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:39 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:27 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:15 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:56 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Kemell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:19 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:36 |
| B. Skjei | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:26 | 0:27 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:37 | 1:48 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Gravel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 59:23 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, NSH 3.0 | BUF 4, NSH 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.3, NSH 30.9 | BUF 29, NSH 23 |
| Win chance | BUF 50% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 36% | 2 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.0 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 4 | 33% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.9 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 1 | 0.77 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.3 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 3 | 0.47 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 4 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH K. Gravel | 1.0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.