Game Recap: BUF 5, NSH 3, January 20, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF5

FinalTue, Jan 20, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

BUF beat NSH 5-3, with the chances close: 2.93 expected goals to 3.15. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Forsberg had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. A. Lyon stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	3	1	1	5
NSH	0	2	1	3

1st 8:11BUFN. Ostlund0.17 xG
1st 11:45BUFN. Ostlund0.21 xG
1st 17:24BUFK. Helenius0.09 xG
2nd 4:20BUFT. Thompson0.15 xG
2nd 10:09NSHR. O'Reilly0.19 xG
2nd 11:54NSHF. Forsberg0.02 xG
3rd 9:30NSHR. O'Reilly0.12 xG
3rd 18:14BUFP. KrebsEN0.46 xG

Team Stats

BUFNSH

33Shots on goal34

2.93Expected goals3.15

47Shot attempts83

315v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play0/2

17Hits27

19Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways10

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.93 xGNSH 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF33 on goal, 5 scored

NSH34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Helenius	C	1	2	3	4	2	1	+2	0	14:43	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	16:58	1:23
P. Krebs	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	12:31	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:44	0:35
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:33	1:22
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	12:57	1:25
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:30	0:37
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	2	17:32	1:27
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	16:32	0:38
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	0	15:32	0:33
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	11:25	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	11:02	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	0	5	3	+2	0	28:02	1:36
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	2	25:53	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	23:25	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:59	0:24
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:36	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	2	1	3	4	0	0	+2	2	20:42	2:36
F. Forsberg	LW	1	2	3	7	1	1	+1	0	19:38	2:35
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	2	20:35	2:35
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:06	2:35
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	13:49	1:22
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:33	1:25
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	13:28	1:24
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:19	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:39	1:25
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:24	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	26:15	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	28:24	2:34
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:09	0:14
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	18:15	1:12
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:30	0:03
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	19	15	4	.789	23:54	Loss
J. Annunen	13	13	0	1.000	34:09

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Zucker15:38R. McLeod15:44J. Quinn15:09

Line 2N. Ostlund15:17K. Helenius14:43Z. Benson14:01

Line 3T. Thompson10:59J. Doan11:25A. Tuch11:31

Line 4J. Greenway10:17B. Malenstyn10:05P. Krebs11:19

Pair 1R. Dahlin24:41O. Power21:20

Pair 2M. Samuelsson22:07B. Byram19:31

Pair 3J. Bryson8:29Z. Metsa7:59

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly15:58L. Evangelista16:20F. Forsberg15:32

Line 2M. McCarron12:03C. Smith11:58O. Wiesblatt11:24

Line 3F. Svechkov12:53M. Wood12:08J. Marchessault11:54

Line 4E. Haula11:29M. Bunting10:57S. Stamkos13:41

Pair 1R. Josi23:56B. Skjei23:32

Pair 2N. Hague19:10N. Blankenburg15:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJason Zucker BUF Faces NSH, his team until May 20245 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, NSH 3.4	BUF 5, NSH 3
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	BUF 26.6, NSH 30.0	BUF 33, NSH 34
Win chance	NSH 54%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.6	1	1.07	1	41%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	7	1.01	3	38%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	4	0.92	0	21%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	1	0.93	0	38%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.6	4	0.76	1	22%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	0	0.81	1	18%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	1	0.79	1	29%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.68	1	23%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	4	0.92	3	30%	2
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	5	0.69	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	1	0.59	0	23%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	1	0.57	0	26%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	1	0.45	0	19%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	5	0.55	0	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	2	0.47	0	14%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.43	1	11%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	3	0.39	1	7%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.35	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	1	0.25	0	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	0	0.37	1	8%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	2	0.26	0	12%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	2	0.51	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.58	0	18%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	2	0.34	0	8%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	3	0.42	2	16%	2
NSH N. Hague	1.0	2	0.26	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.29	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	2	0.30	2	9%	1
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	3	0.20	0	8%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.8	0	0.20	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.15	0	6%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	0	0.11	0	4%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.