NYI beat BUF 3-0, with the chances close: 2.11 expected goals to 1.56. BUF outshot NYI 29 to 20. S. Holmstrom led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Nelson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. I. Sorokin stopped 29 of 29.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.56 xGNYI 2.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 20:20 | 1:47 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:01 | 2:03 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:40 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:04 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 1:37 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:07 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 2:24 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:12 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 1:51 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:08 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:49 | 1:57 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:38 | 2:03 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:28 | 0:07 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 57:17 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:55 | 1:08 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:38 | 2:42 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 2:50 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:38 | 2:56 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 2:51 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:34 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:22 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 1:25 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 2:47 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:31 | 1:06 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:22 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 1:37 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, NYI 3.1 | BUF 0, NYI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 29.1, NYI 29.6 | BUF 29, NYI 20 |
| Win chance | NYI 52% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.7 | 6 | 0.85 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.