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Game Recap
BUF7
NYI1
BUF beat NYI 7-1, with the chances close: 2.55 expected goals to 2.01. R. Dahlin led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). M. Tsyplakov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
BUFNYI
25Shots on goal28
2.55Expected goals2.01
44Shot attempts77
185v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/1
17Hits19
30Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways22
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.55 xGNYI 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Kulich | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:34 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 15:22 | 1:30 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 3:19 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:19 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 3:19 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:53 | 3:19 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:34 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:38 | 0:04 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +3 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:27 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:07 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 23:11 | 3:38 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:05 | 1:15 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:02 | 2:00 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:42 | 2:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:28 | 2:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 24 | 18 | 6 | .750 | 58:00 | Loss |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.9, NYI 3.2 | BUF 7, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.4, NYI 29.8 | BUF 25, NYI 28 |
| Win chance | NYI 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.73 | 4 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.5 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.4 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 3 | 14% | 2 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 5 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.