Game Recap: BUF 6, NYR 1, November 7, 2024

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Game Recap

BUF6

FinalThu, Nov 7, 2024Every game that night

NYR1

BUF beat NYR 6-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.15 expected goals to 2.90. Z. Benson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	4	1	6
NYR	0	0	1	1

1st 0:26BUFR. Dahlin0.06 xG
2nd 2:45BUFD. Cozens0.12 xG
2nd 11:39BUFT. Thompson0.05 xG
2nd 12:09BUFJ. Greenway0.20 xG
2nd 13:51BUFS. Lafferty0.11 xG
3rd 4:21NYRW. Cuylle0.09 xG
3rd 11:55BUFZ. BensonPP0.22 xG

Team Stats

BUFNYR

22Shots on goal26

2.15Expected goals2.90

39Shot attempts66

145v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play0/4

17Hits34

21Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

21Giveaways10

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.15 xGNYR 2.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF22 on goal, 6 scored

NYR26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	17:43	4:00
Z. Benson	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	2	17:01	3:55
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:02	3:58
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	16:24	3:46
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:50	3:58
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:33	0:02
J. Greenway	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:05	0:00
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:53	3:46
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:08	3:51
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	10:47	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:37	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	10:31	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	3	0	5	+2	0	24:18	3:57
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+4	0	21:38	3:37
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+1	0	16:40	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:53	4:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	17:30	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:48	5:31
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	4	4	1	-2	0	13:48	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	6	1	-1	0	21:51	4:52
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:22	3:01
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:53	5:25
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	16:35	5:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	13:20	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	13:01	2:37
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:28	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:25	2:29
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:22	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	12:12	3:04
Z. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	17:40	2:45
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	23:31	5:11
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	2	20:18	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	18:16	0:04
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	17:54	0:04
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	12	7	5	.583	33:11	Loss
J. Quick	10	9	1	.900	25:57

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Carrick BUF First game back in New York, his team until Mar 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, NYR 3.5	BUF 6, NYR 1
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	BUF 31.3, NYR 30.9	BUF 22, NYR 26
Win chance	NYR 59%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	2	0.82	1	34%	1
NYR A. Panarin	3.1	1	1.27	1	35%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.9	1	0.59	1	25%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	1	0.74	1	26%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.6	2	0.95	0	28%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.5	3	0.79	0	37%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.5	4	0.52	1	20%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	0	0.72	0	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	3	0.90	0	28%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	3	0.57	1	12%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	0	0.48	1	20%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.2	1	0.53	0	20%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.8	1	0.59	0	20%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	4	0.43	2	17%	0
NYR J. Trouba	1.7	1	0.35	0	8%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	4	0.38	1	17%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.6	3	0.80	0	14%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.6	1	0.32	1	13%	1
NYR K. Kakko	1.5	1	0.38	0	16%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	0	0.34	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	1	0.34	1	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.40	1	10%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	0	0.36	0	10%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.2	2	0.30	2	12%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.25	0	7%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	1	0.24	1	5%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.24	0	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	0	0.19	1	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	3	0.18	0	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	0	0.23	1	8%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.15	1	6%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	2	0.18	1	9%	1
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.20	0	11%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.13	0	2%	0
BUF D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.