Game Recap: BUF 5, NYR 2, January 8, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF5

FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night

NYR2

BUF beat NYR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 2.95. NYR outshot BUF 32 to 21. J. Zucker led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Gavrikov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Ellis stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	1	2	2	5
NYR	0	1	1	2

1st 4:07BUFJ. Doan0.18 xG
2nd 6:58BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG
2nd 9:34NYRM. Zibanejad0.12 xG
2nd 12:34BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.23 xG
3rd 0:51NYRV. Trocheck0.05 xG
3rd 14:38BUFM. SamuelssonSH0.04 xG
3rd 18:30BUFR. McLeodEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

BUFNYR

21Shots on goal32

4.25Expected goals2.95

47Shot attempts65

135v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play0/3

16Hits32

20Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways13

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.25 xGNYR 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF21 on goal, 5 scored

NYR31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. McLeod	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:30	0:39
J. Zucker	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	15:00	2:13
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:30	0:22
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	16:39	2:19
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	16:09	2:17
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	13:27	2:02
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:04	0:28
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:12	0:24
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:49	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:59	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	12:01	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	4	11:29	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	1	1	2	1	2	4	+1	0	23:56	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+3	0	23:45	0:27
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	-2	0	23:41	2:14
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:15	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:39	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	-3	0	20:53	5:11
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	20:24	4:47
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	3	4	1	0	2	19:47	4:24
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	-2	0	19:33	4:37
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	16:34	1:50
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:30	1:19
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:11	1:13
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:38	1:58
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:12	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:08	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
A. Blidh	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-3	0	24:37	4:37
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	21:19	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	18:21	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	18:08	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:51	1:33
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	20	16	4	.800	58:25	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1Z. Benson15:00J. Quinn13:48R. McLeod13:42

Line 2T. Thompson14:20J. Doan13:52P. Krebs11:23

Line 3J. Zucker12:47A. Tuch14:07J. Norris11:25

Line 4J. Greenway10:44N. Ostlund12:59B. Malenstyn9:41

Pair 1M. Samuelsson20:30R. Dahlin19:58

Pair 2O. Power18:58B. Byram19:17

Pair 3J. Bryson10:55Z. Metsa12:39

NYR

Line 1T. Raddysh14:24J. Brodzinski14:12G. Perreault13:58

Line 2V. Trocheck15:01J. Miller14:26A. Lafrenière12:34

Line 3A. Panarin15:36M. Zibanejad13:10W. Cuylle13:09

Line 4S. Carrick10:08M. Rempe9:43A. Blidh7:35

Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:27B. Schneider19:39

Pair 2W. Borgen16:55M. Robertson17:20

Pair 3C. Soucy14:30S. Morrow15:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Carrick BUF First game back in New York, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, NYR 3.1	BUF 5, NYR 2
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	BUF 27.7, NYR 26.8	BUF 21, NYR 32
Win chance	NYR 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	2	0.90	1	37%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.3	4	1.28	2	38%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	3	1.01	1	32%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	3	0.68	1	14%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	1	0.76	1	28%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.4	2	0.62	1	22%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	3	0.94	1	31%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.4	3	1.08	1	33%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	1	0.70	0	26%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	3	0.61	2	22%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	3	0.57	0	23%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	1	0.45	0	14%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.41	0	7%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	3	0.50	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	1	0.58	1	26%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	4	0.39	0	9%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	0	0.47	1	12%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.4	0	0.35	0	6%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.34	0	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.31	2	6%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	2	0.28	0	7%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.54	2	18%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.34	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.17	0	7%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	2	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.0	2	0.31	0	12%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.20	0	7%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR A. Blidh	0.6	0	0.14	0	5%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	1	0.10	0	4%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.