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Game Recap
BUF4
SEA6
SEA beat BUF 6-4, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 2.88. J. McCann led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J.Kulich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Daccord stopped 25 of 29.
Team Stats
BUFSEA
29Shots on goal34
2.88Expected goals3.29
63Shot attempts54
205v5 shots on goal30
1/3Power play1/2
18Hits16
7Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways12
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.88 xGSEA 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:19 | 3:34 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:05 | 3:51 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 1:41 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:22 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:32 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:26 | 1:23 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 3:50 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:51 | 1:39 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:03 | 3:48 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 1:25 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:39 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:19 | 2:50 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 2:43 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 2:38 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:38 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:55 | 0:04 |
| J. Hayden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 2:41 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:40 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:39 | 0:31 |
| A. Larsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:43 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:38 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, SEA 3.1 | BUF 4, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.4, SEA 28.0 | BUF 29, SEA 34 |
| Win chance | SEA 52% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 1 | 0.92 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 1 | 0.78 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 5 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.6 | 6 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.