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Game Recap
BUF4
SJS2
BUF beat SJS 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.94 expected goals to 4.08. R. Dahlin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Reimer stopped 31 of 33.
Team Stats
BUFSJS
31Shots on goal33
1.94Expected goals4.08
56Shot attempts69
245v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play0/5
20Hits45
16Blocked shots13
14Penalty minutes10
24Giveaways14
5Takeaways12
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.94 xGSJS 4.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:57 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:47 | 2:35 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:40 | 0:43 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:17 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:50 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:43 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 2:12 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:40 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 24:58 | 2:54 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:18 | 1:49 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:50 | 1:37 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:23 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 59:57 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:50 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 6:24 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:32 | 6:08 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 3:21 |
| L. Kunin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:42 | 6:32 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:14 | 6:52 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 3:09 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 3:02 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:11 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:45 | 0:08 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:40 | 0:09 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:49 | 2:54 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 20:43 | 5:31 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:08 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:56 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 59:10 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.4, SJS 2.8 | BUF 4, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 31.4, SJS 27.6 | BUF 31, SJS 33 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF R. Dahlin | 3.0 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 6 | 0.78 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.5 | 8 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.3 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.3 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.2 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.