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Game Recap
BUF5
SJS0
BUF beat SJS 5-0, with the chances close: 2.43 expected goals to 1.96. S. Carrick led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Lyon stopped 23 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 9:05BUFN. Ostlund0.22 xG
- 2nd 9:41BUFS. Carrick0.02 xG
- 2nd 10:48BUFR. Dahlin0.17 xG
- 3rd 0:40BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG
- 3rd 16:54BUFS. Carrick0.19 xG
Team Stats
BUFSJS
16Shots on goal23
2.43Expected goals1.96
42Shot attempts49
135v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/2
14Hits27
14Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways19
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.43 xGSJS 1.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Carrick | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:32 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:23 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:37 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:22 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:08 | 1:17 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:43 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 2:37 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:10 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:28 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:09 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:07 | 2:36 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:47 | 0:06 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:57 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:06 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:31 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:42 | 1:54 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:55 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:02 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:30 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:54 | 1:03 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:41 | 0:58 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:06 | 0:04 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:15 | 2:27 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:33 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 16 | 11 | 5 | .688 | 60:00 | Loss |
| L. Brossoit | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1A. Tuch13:34T. Thompson15:27P. Krebs13:42
Line 2J. Norris13:36J. Doan13:49N. Ostlund13:29
Line 4S. Carrick11:51B. Malenstyn12:06Z. Benson11:34
Pair 2R. Dahlin17:15M. Samuelsson16:56
Pair 3L. Stanley15:41Z. Metsa15:48
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini18:13C. Graf15:43W. Smith17:58
Line 2K. Sherwood16:22W. Eklund13:52M. Misa13:18
Line 3A. Wennberg15:22P. Regenda12:46
Line 4B. Goodrow10:50Z. Ostapchuk9:21A. Gaudette9:51
Pair 1S. Dickinson16:39M. Ferraro19:52
Pair 2D. Orlov16:48V. Desharnais16:41
Pair 3N. Leddy17:25S. Mukhamadullin16:16
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.6, SJS 3.1 | BUF 5, SJS 0 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.8, SJS 27.9 | BUF 16, SJS 23 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 1 | 1.26 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.5 | 1 | 1.14 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 0 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.3 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Carrick | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.7 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.