BUF beat STL 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.51 expected goals to 3.80. STL outshot BUF 37 to 16. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Schenn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. U. Luukkonen stopped 35 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.51 xGSTL 3.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:52 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:49 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:51 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:34 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 | 0:33 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:17 | 2:54 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:31 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:36 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 23:38 | 2:25 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 1:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 59:44 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:07 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:12 | 2:03 |
| N. Walker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:17 | 5:15 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 5:16 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 5:05 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 5:13 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:04 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:42 | 0:16 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:19 | 2:04 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:09 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:42 | 4:36 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:01 | 2:31 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:24 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:07 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 16 | 12 | 4 | .750 | 56:26 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, STL 3.3 | BUF 4, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.2, STL 27.9 | BUF 16, STL 37 |
| Win chance | STL 53% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 5 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.