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Game Recap
BUF1
WPG4
WPG beat BUF 4-1, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 3.43. BUF outshot WPG 35 to 23. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Timmins had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. E. Comrie stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 4:24WPGK. Connor0.04 xG
- 1st 14:44BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 2:22WPGT. Pearson0.17 xG
- 2nd 18:42WPGC. Koepke0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:26WPGG. VilardiEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
BUFWPG
35Shots on goal23
3.43Expected goals3.20
67Shot attempts41
265v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play0/1
22Hits33
7Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways14
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.43 xGWPG 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:52 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:52 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:27 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:47 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:27 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:27 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:05 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:50 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:27 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:42 | 1:52 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:46 | 0:27 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:02 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:30 | Loss |
| A. Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:33 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:33 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:33 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:27 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:27 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:33 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:27 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:27 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:57 | 1:33 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:27 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Salomonsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson13:53Z. Benson12:36J. Norris12:28
Line 2P. Krebs14:45J. Greenway12:44B. Malenstyn12:14
Line 4A. Tuch12:02J. Doan12:31N. Ostlund10:32
Pair 1R. Dahlin19:16M. Samuelsson20:00
Pair 2C. Timmins17:34B. Byram20:25
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele16:36K. Connor16:21G. Vilardi15:55
Line 2J. Toews13:07C. Perfetti14:01A. Lowry11:58
Line 3N. Niederreiter11:41A. Iafallo11:09V. Namestnikov12:25
Line 4T. Pearson10:14M. Barron11:38C. Koepke10:35
Pair 1D. DeMelo19:03J. Morrissey19:57
Pair 2D. Samberg19:43N. Pionk19:54
Pair 3L. Stanley15:02E. Salomonsson11:36
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.8, WPG 3.3 | BUF 1, WPG 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.1, WPG 28.8 | BUF 35, WPG 23 |
| Win chance | WPG 59% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 4 | 1.20 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.9 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.2 | 1 | 1.13 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 1 | 0.85 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG T. Pearson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.