BOS beat CAR 5-1, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.74. CAR outshot BOS 40 to 27. D. Pastrnak scored three for BOS. L. Stankoven had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Swayman stopped 39 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| BOS | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 18:49BOSM. Geekie0.04 xG
- 1st 19:47BOSE. Lindholm0.09 xG
- 2nd 10:14BOSD. Pastrnak0.06 xG
- 3rd 1:28BOSD. Pastrnak0.08 xG
- 3rd 15:18BOSD. Pastrnak0.24 xG
- 3rd 19:05CARJ. Robidas0.23 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.74 xGBOS 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robidas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:48 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:10 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:50 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 13:08 | 1:08 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 1:10 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:12 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:52 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:49 | 1:16 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:50 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:44 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 60:00 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:29 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:55 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +5 | 0 | 16:29 | 1:40 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:59 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:58 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:54 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:04 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:06 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:37 | 1:21 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:08 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:09 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:10 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:17 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:07 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:43 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 40 | 39 | 1 | .975 | 59:40 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, BOS 2.7 | CAR 1, BOS 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.7, BOS 24.0 | CAR 40, BOS 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 5 | 1.11 | 5 | 40% | 3 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 7 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 5 | 26% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 4 | 0.53 | 3 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.6 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.5 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.8 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.