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Game Recap
CAR3
BOS1
CAR beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 1.89. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Eyssimont had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Kochetkov stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 8:25CARJ. Staal0.02 xG
- 2nd 13:34CARM. Jankowski0.27 xG
- 3rd 17:27CART. Hall0.24 xG
- 3rd 19:50BOSR. TuftePP0.47 xG
Team Stats
CARBOS
32Shots on goal30
3.84Expected goals1.89
80Shot attempts48
245v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/4
19Hits26
10Blocked shots20
10Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways27
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.84 xGBOS 1.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:51 | 1:19 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:43 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 2:41 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 | 2:41 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 2:45 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:19 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 1:17 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:15 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 21:48 | 1:08 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:35 | 0:07 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:45 | 2:41 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 3:41 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 3:28 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:06 | 6:15 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:49 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:20 | 4:45 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:43 | 4:29 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Blümel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 2:42 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:32 | 1:27 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:58 | 3:44 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 4 | 21:01 | 0:13 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 3:57 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Aho12:10S. Jarvis12:07A. Svechnikov11:53
Line 2J. Staal12:12J. Martinook11:53W. Carrier11:32
Line 3T. Hall12:32M. Jankowski11:04E. Robinson11:08
Line 4L. Stankoven10:52J. Blake10:56N. Ehlers10:21
Pair 1M. Reilly15:26A. Nikishin16:52
Pair 2K. Miller15:35J. Nystrom14:21
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:04S. Walker14:32
BOS
Line 1T. Jeannot13:50F. Minten13:40M. Kastelic11:07
Line 2S. Kuraly11:56R. Tufte11:45M. Eyssimont11:41
Line 3M. Blümel10:28A. Steeves10:03P. Zacha11:06
Line 4M. Geekie10:12M. Khusnutdinov9:38D. Pastrnak12:50
Pair 1H. Lindholm15:12A. Peeke16:51
Pair 2N. Zadorov19:46H. Jokiharju17:05
Pair 3J. Aspirot11:02M. Lohrei13:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, BOS 2.8 | CAR 3, BOS 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.5, BOS 24.2 | CAR 32, BOS 30 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 1 | 1.24 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.7 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.6 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.15 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Blümel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.0 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.