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Game Recap
CAR0
BUF3
BUF beat CAR 3-0, with the chances close: 2.19 expected goals to 1.95. CAR outshot BUF 33 to 18. T. Jost had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Reimer stopped 33 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BUF | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 1:32BUFT. Thompson0.08 xG
- 2nd 16:45BUFA. TuchSH0.16 xG
- 3rd 1:58BUFJ. Peterka0.18 xG
Team Stats
CARBUF
33Shots on goal18
1.95Expected goals2.19
66Shot attempts43
295v5 shots on goal15
0/3Power play0/2
12Hits22
13Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways19
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 1.95 xGBUF 2.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:32 | 3:59 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 3:51 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:48 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:05 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 3:48 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:49 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:08 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:33 | 1:09 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:08 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 1:08 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:19 | 3:47 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 59:56 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 1:51 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:02 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 1:48 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:53 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:54 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:01 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:50 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:03 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:02 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:04 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:06 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:38 | 0:01 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:49 | 1:51 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 20:10 | 1:14 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 33 | 33 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.5, BUF 3.0 | CAR 0, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.8, BUF 25.7 | CAR 33, BUF 18 |
| Win chance | CAR 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 5 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.