CAR beat CGY 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.33 expected goals to 2.96. CAR outshot CGY 43 to 32. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Kadri had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. P. Kochetkov stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 12:29CARS. JarvisPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 0:41CARJ. Roslovic0.41 xG
- 2nd 1:59CARM. Necas0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:01CGYJ. Bean0.02 xG
- 3rd 13:05CGYJ. Huberdeau0.24 xG
- 3rd 18:43CARE. RobinsonEN0.68 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.33 xGCGY 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:29 | 3:36 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:30 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 3:35 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:37 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:08 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:38 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:35 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:37 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:34 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:07 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15:24 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:23 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:57 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:34 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:37 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:04 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:26 | 0:56 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 1:26 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:56 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:56 | 1:11 |
| J. Bean | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 23:11 | 2:56 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.4, CGY 2.8 | CAR 4, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 32.5, CGY 28.1 | CAR 43, CGY 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 58% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 7 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 3 | 1.06 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.6 | 6 | 0.70 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.0 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY A. Mantha | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.2 | 5 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.