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Game Recap
CAR4
FinalSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night
CGY5

CGY beat CAR 5-4, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 3.04. J. Farabee led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Miller had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Wolf stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR1034
CGY0325
  1. 1st 0:44CARS. Jarvis0.12 xG
  2. 2nd 0:19CGYR. Strome0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 4:11CGYJ. Farabee0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 7:06CGYM. FrostPP0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 2:24CGYB. Coleman0.13 xG
  6. 3rd 4:41CARS. Walker0.09 xG
  7. 3rd 5:43CARA. NikishinPP0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 17:42CGYJ. Farabee0.23 xG
  9. 3rd 19:48CARA. Svechnikov0.25 xG

Team Stats

CARCGY
29Shots on goal25
3.04Expected goals2.68
57Shot attempts45
275v5 shots on goal22
1/2Power play1/3
20Hits26
12Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways13
7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.04 xGCGY 2.68 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCAR goal, 0:44CGY goal, 0:19CGY goal, 4:11CGY goal, 7:06CGY goal, 2:24CAR goal, 4:41CAR goal, 5:43CGY goal, 17:42CAR goal, 19:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR29 on goal, 4 scored
CGY25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. JarvisC123211+2019:291:51
S. AhoC033110+1218:201:58
A. SvechnikovRW112100+1016:012:01
T. HallLW0110010014:470:27
L. StankovenC0000300018:170:31
J. BlakeRW000201-1016:560:37
J. StaalC000062-1015:300:43
N. EhlersLW000200-2014:401:14
J. MartinookLW000401-2012:280:00
E. RobinsonLW0003000010:330:00
M. JankowskiLW0002100010:310:25
W. CarrierLW0001400010:110:00
K. MillerD011510-1423:510:27
S. WalkerD101111-1023:220:05
A. NikishinD1011220016:452:01
J. SlavinD0001000022:240:00
J. ChatfieldD0001030021:530:00
M. ReillyD000200029:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi25205.80058:26Loss
F. Andersen000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. FarabeeLW213410+1018:301:55
M. FrostC123411+1017:052:00
B. ColemanLW112222+1017:501:52
R. StromeC112220+1015:071:51
M. PospisilC011230+1012:100:00
M. BacklundC000210-1018:031:41
M. CoronatoRW000000-2017:261:56
C. ZaryC000100+2015:282:01
Y. SharangovichC000201-1013:181:46
J. BeecherC0000000012:070:21
A. KlapkaRW0000510210:570:19
R. LombergLW0001200010:470:09
O. MäättäD011105-1023:540:00
Z. ParekhD011000+1019:021:59
K. BahlD0001100025:502:06
Y. KuznetsovD000130+1021:370:22
B. PachalD000140+2420:200:00
Z. WhitecloudD000110-106:160:12
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf29254.86259:46Win
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven14:54J. Blake14:44T. Hall13:23
Line 2J. Staal11:48N. Ehlers12:36J. Martinook10:32
Line 3S. Jarvis14:22S. Aho13:23A. Svechnikov13:10
Line 4M. Jankowski9:34W. Carrier10:11E. Robinson10:01
Pair 1K. Miller21:02S. Walker19:36
Pair 2J. Slavin18:29J. Chatfield19:05
Pair 3M. Reilly9:30A. Nikishin11:55

CGY

Line 1B. Coleman13:19J. Farabee14:29M. Frost13:53
Line 2M. Backlund12:38M. Coronato13:05Y. Sharangovich11:32
Line 3C. Zary13:15R. Strome12:40M. Pospisil11:32
Line 4R. Lomberg10:38A. Klapka10:38J. Beecher10:48
Pair 1O. Määttä19:51B. Pachal18:25
Pair 2Y. Kuznetsov17:58Z. Parekh16:20
Pair 3K. Bahl21:10Z. Whitecloud6:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownTaylor Hall CAR Plays in his hometown1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.2, CGY 2.8CAR 4, CGY 5
Total goals6.09
Shots on goalCAR 31.2, CGY 25.5CAR 29, CGY 25
Win chanceCAR 57%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR S. Jarvis2.820.77329%1
CAR A. Svechnikov2.510.72226%1
CAR N. Ehlers2.520.74026%0
CAR S. Aho2.410.86330%0
CGY M. Backlund2.320.56020%0
CGY M. Coronato2.200.53021%0
CGY B. Coleman2.020.47221%1
CAR L. Stankoven1.900.42016%0
CAR T. Hall1.900.50119%0
CAR S. Walker1.810.2316%1
CAR J. Blake1.820.47019%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.720.48022%0
CGY J. Farabee1.740.45319%2
CGY C. Zary1.710.47019%0
CAR J. Slavin1.610.2906%0
CAR J. Staal1.500.44017%0
CGY M. Frost1.440.42315%1
CAR J. Martinook1.440.37014%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.410.2406%0
CAR M. Reilly1.420.1803%0
CAR K. Miller1.450.3517%0
CAR A. Nikishin1.310.2616%1
CAR E. Robinson1.130.24011%0
CAR W. Carrier1.110.20010%0
CGY A. Klapka1.100.27012%0
CGY R. Strome1.120.36211%1
CGY M. Pospisil1.020.2317%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.010.2006%0
CGY R. Lomberg0.910.1909%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.910.2306%0
CGY Z. Parekh0.900.1916%0
CGY K. Bahl0.910.2505%0
CAR M. Jankowski0.820.24011%0
CGY J. Beecher0.700.1607%0
CGY B. Pachal0.610.1203%0
CGY O. Määttä0.510.1413%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.