Game Recap: CAR 4, CHI 3 (OT), January 20, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR4

Final/OTMon, Jan 20, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

CAR beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.86. CAR outshot CHI 48 to 25. J. Slavin led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). E. Robinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. F. Andersen stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	0	2	1	1	4
CHI	2	1	0	0	3

1st 9:46CHIP. Kurashev0.14 xG
1st 16:55CHIT. Bertuzzi0.18 xG
2nd 1:25CARS. JarvisSH0.16 xG
2nd 7:26CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.26 xG
2nd 19:41CHIR. Donato0.18 xG
3rd 13:37CARJ. Staal0.39 xG
OT 0:59CARS. Aho0.20 xG

Team Stats

CARCHI

48Shots on goal25

3.83Expected goals2.86

91Shot attempts49

425v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/2

19Hits23

10Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways17

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.83 xGCHI 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR48 on goal, 4 scored

CHI25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	19:15	2:39
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:01	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:00	2:39
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	16:53	2:37
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	16:43	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	5	3	0	+1	0	15:20	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:24	1:21
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-2	0	16:29	2:42
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	15:49	1:22
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:52	1:22
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	12:10	1:18
J. Jaaska	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:57	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	3	3	1	1	3	-1	0	26:21	0:04
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	17:40	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	22:25	1:18
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	20:39	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:27	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:32	2:38

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	25	22	3	.880	60:59	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:54	2:24
P. Kurashev	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	11:18	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	18:34	2:25
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:11	1:24
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	15:05	1:35
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	20:22	2:25
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:04	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	15:34	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:57	2:25
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	13:57	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:00	1:35
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	11:56	1:35
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	5	4	0	0	24:29	2:09
L. Crevier	D	0	1	1	2	5	1	+1	0	20:15	0:10
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	22:32	0:10
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:41	1:41
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:32	0:01
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:49	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	48	44	4	.917	60:46	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTaylor Hall CAR Faces CHI, his team until Jan 20251 A, 1 SOG
Old teamTeuvo Teravainen CHI Faces CAR, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.5, CHI 2.3	CAR 4, CHI 3
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	CAR 33.7, CHI 23.5	CAR 48, CHI 25
Win chance	CAR 68%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Aho	2.8	3	1.07	2	36%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	3	0.85	0	29%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	3	0.86	1	32%	1
CAR M. Necas	2.5	4	0.84	1	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	2	0.85	0	24%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.2	4	0.52	0	10%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.9	2	0.58	0	22%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	2	0.43	2	17%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	5	0.61	1	24%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.63	0	11%	0
CHI S. Jones	1.7	1	0.41	1	8%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	2	0.47	1	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	3	0.47	1	17%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.38	0	18%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.6	1	0.43	1	17%	1
CAR J. Drury	1.6	3	0.33	0	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	4	0.46	1	17%	1
CHI T. Hall	1.5	1	0.47	1	17%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.42	3	7%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.5	4	0.34	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.62	0	20%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.5	3	0.24	0	6%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.29	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	1	0.44	0	17%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	5	0.35	1	14%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	1	0.33	0	10%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	1	0.33	2	11%	1
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	2	0.27	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CHI A. Martinez	0.9	2	0.23	0	5%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	2	0.15	1	5%	0
CAR J. Jaaska	0.7	1	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.4	1	0.19	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.