Game Recap: CAR 4, COL 6, November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

COL6

COL beat CAR 6-4, with the chances close: 4.07 expected goals to 3.34. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). N. MacKinnon had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. A. Georgiev stopped 27 of 31.

Team Stats

CARCOL

31Shots on goal29

3.34Expected goals4.07

59Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal20

1/4Power play1/5

16Hits7

13Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

7Giveaways9

1Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.34 xGCOL 4.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR31 on goal, 4 scored

COL28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Martinook	LW	2	1	3	3	0	1	+1	0	14:55	0:02
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	-1	0	17:57	3:01
S. Jarvis	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	-2	0	15:46	3:26
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	-3	0	21:15	3:26
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	20:29	2:57
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	16:18	0:02
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:35	2:08
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:26	2:10
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:56	2:08
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:31	2:12
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	9:04	0:25
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	14:20	0:02
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	25:03	2:32
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	0	22:51	0:28
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	2	19:43	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+2	2	18:29	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:28	3:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Martin	28	23	5	.821	58:23	Loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	3	4	7	0	0	+3	0	26:19	4:38
M. Rantanen	RW	2	1	3	4	0	0	+3	2	25:02	4:43
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	5	2	0	+3	0	26:10	4:37
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:58	4:46
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:57	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:53	1:54
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:35	0:04
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:57	1:42
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
T. Tynan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	7:21	1:49
N. Prishchepov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:35	0:00
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:31	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	26:15	1:41
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	25:12	4:51
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:57	1:55
S. Malinski	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	2	15:54	0:00
J. Ludvig	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	9:51	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	31	27	4	.871	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrent Burns COL Faces CAR, his team until May 20252 SOG
Old teamMartin Necas COL Faces CAR, his team until Jan 20251 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces COL, his team until May 20241 A, 4 SOG
HometownJaccob Slavin CAR Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, COL 3.1	CAR 4, COL 6
Total goals	6.5	10
Shots on goal	CAR 31.5, COL 28.9	CAR 31, COL 29
Win chance	CAR 53%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	7	1.43	4	39%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.0	4	1.17	3	38%	2
COL A. Lehkonen	2.6	5	0.84	2	31%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	0	0.95	1	32%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.80	1	26%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.4	2	0.74	2	24%	1
COL C. Makar	2.2	4	0.88	1	18%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.1	1	0.72	2	26%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.9	2	0.50	0	10%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.9	1	0.75	1	21%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.7	3	0.43	3	16%	2
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	3	0.50	0	17%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	3	0.41	0	15%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.42	0	7%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.57	0	11%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	2	0.43	0	9%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	2	0.47	1	9%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.36	1	14%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.4	3	0.35	1	10%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.29	0	15%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.4	0	0.34	0	15%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	4	0.23	1	6%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.3	0	0.40	0	16%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.34	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	0	0.29	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.30	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.20	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	2	0.22	0	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.1	1	0.28	1	5%	1
COL C. Wagner	1.1	0	0.12	0	7%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	1	0.31	1	5%	0
COL T. Tynan	0.9	0	0.14	0	8%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.9	2	0.34	0	12%	0
COL J. Ludvig	0.6	0	0.15	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.