Game Recap: CAR 5, COL 4 (SO), October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR5

Final/SOThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

COL4

CAR beat COL 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 4.83. COL outshot CAR 48 to 31. V. Nichushkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). V. Olofsson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. F. Andersen stopped 44 of 48.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	4	0	0	1	5
COL	1	1	2	0	4

1st 3:07CARE. Robinson0.03 xG
1st 4:04COLV. Nichushkin0.19 xG
1st 7:17CARS. JarvisSH0.17 xG
1st 12:41CARS. Aho0.24 xG
1st 13:40CARL. Stankoven0.16 xG
2nd 4:46COLP. Kelly0.06 xG
3rd 4:45COLM. Necas0.13 xG
3rd 14:09COLV. NichushkinPP0.20 xG

Team Stats

CARCOL

31Shots on goal48

2.39Expected goals4.83

53Shot attempts80

195v5 shots on goal31

0/5Power play1/8

19Hits28

12Blocked shots12

18Penalty minutes14

12Giveaways10

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.39 xGCOL 4.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR30 on goal, 4 scored

COL47 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	1	1	2	5	0	1	0	0	23:01	6:48
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	2	22:35	6:40
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:19	6:41
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:30	4:53
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	16:16	2:55
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	4	15:07	2:54
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:47	2:53
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	7:38	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:50	0:16
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:52	0:16
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:14	4:55
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:16	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	23:12	2:28
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	28:16	3:50
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	2	23:05	0:21
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	16:02	1:32
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+3	2	14:42	0:25
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	4	13:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	48	44	4	.917	65:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	2	0	2	7	1	0	0	2	22:05	7:17
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	-2	0	25:25	10:20
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	2	21:25	8:30
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	-2	0	19:57	4:44
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	14:45	9:23
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	2	14:38	0:12
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	10:04	0:11
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	4	19:55	6:03
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	14:57	0:03
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:21	4:25
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	11:17	3:35
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	4:24	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	28:30	10:14
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	13:42	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:07	0:40
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:55	3:15
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	+1	0	20:20	0:12
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	11	7	4	.636	13:40
T. Miner	20	20	0	1.000	51:20	OT loss

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven12:22J. Blake11:41T. Hall11:21

Line 2S. Aho10:55S. Jarvis11:11N. Ehlers11:38

Line 3J. Staal9:31J. Martinook10:07A. Svechnikov9:55

Line 4E. Robinson6:24J. Kotkaniemi6:12

Pair 1M. Reilly13:01S. Walker15:11

Pair 2J. Chatfield13:40A. Nikishin12:11

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon12:58M. Necas11:56A. Lehkonen12:01

Line 2R. Colton9:53J. Drury11:29P. Kelly10:16

Line 3B. Nelson9:30V. Nichushkin9:38G. Landeskog8:28

Line 4G. Brindley7:08Z. Bardakov4:24

Pair 1B. Burns11:57J. Manson14:16

Pair 2D. Toews14:49C. Makar12:25

Pair 3S. Malinski12:22I. Solovyov9:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrent Burns COL Faces CAR, his team until May 20252 SOG
Old teamMartin Necas COL Faces CAR, his team until Jan 20251 G, 3 SOG
Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces COL, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.9, COL 3.2	CAR 5, COL 4
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	CAR 27.8, COL 27.8	CAR 31, COL 48
Win chance	COL 55%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	4	1.36	1	38%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.75	1	27%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	5	0.78	2	29%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	0.92	1	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	1	0.87	1	31%	1
COL C. Makar	2.4	4	0.93	1	21%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	4	0.70	1	29%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	1	0.75	0	30%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	7	0.62	2	28%	2
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	1	0.44	1	18%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.0	2	0.46	1	19%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	1.9	2	0.57	0	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.27	0	8%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	1	0.69	0	26%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	7	0.47	1	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	2	0.45	1	18%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	2	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.5	1	0.23	1	4%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.37	1	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.29	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.24	0	13%	0
COL D. Toews	1.3	3	0.47	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	1	0.21	1	5%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	1	0.37	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	4	0.22	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	2	0.25	1	11%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.0	2	0.33	0	5%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	1	0.27	1	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	2	0.20	1	9%	1
COL I. Solovyov	0.8	1	0.16	0	2%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.7	2	0.18	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.