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Game Recap
CAR2
DET1
CAR beat DET 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.69. J. Martinook led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Andersen stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 18:59CARJ. Martinook0.13 xG
- 2nd 1:29CARJ. Staal0.03 xG
- 3rd 10:05DETE. Soderblom0.15 xG
Team Stats
CARDET
30Shots on goal25
3.96Expected goals2.69
77Shot attempts50
255v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/3
23Hits33
11Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways18
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.96 xGDET 2.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:24 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:34 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:34 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:38 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:24 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 14:50 | 0:29 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:33 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 1:36 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:10 | 0:07 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:07 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:31 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:24 | 0:02 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:50 | 0:29 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:07 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Soderblom | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:14 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:28 | 3:14 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 3:16 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:51 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:53 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 3:16 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:38 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:44 | 3:15 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:38 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:02 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:13 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 2:45 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:22 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, DET 2.8 | CAR 2, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.3, DET 25.7 | CAR 30, DET 25 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.8 | 2 | 1.07 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.