Game Recap: CAR 3, DET 5, April 4, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR3

FinalFri, Apr 4, 2025Every game that night

DET5

DET beat CAR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 3.02. CAR outshot DET 33 to 21. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Jarvis had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. C. Talbot stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	2	1	3
DET	2	2	1	5

1st 9:03DETB. Chiarot0.05 xG
1st 9:29DETM. Kasper0.05 xG
2nd 1:57CARJ. Blake0.22 xG
2nd 9:05DETP. Kane0.18 xG
2nd 9:26DETM. Rasmussen0.24 xG
2nd 12:36CARE. Robinson0.05 xG
3rd 12:44CARB. Burns0.02 xG
3rd 19:59DETA. DeBrincatEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

CARDET

33Shots on goal21

3.02Expected goals4.01

74Shot attempts45

225v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/2

7Hits17

6Blocked shots25

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways22

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.02 xGDET 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR32 on goal, 3 scored

DET20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	7	1	0	-1	0	21:58	2:59
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:48	2:39
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	15:05	1:01
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	9:29	0:00
J. Robidas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:34	3:03
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:13	2:39
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:43	1:20
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:17	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:38	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:50	0:58
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	20:45	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	22:47	1:13
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:51	2:47
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:43	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-3	2	16:26	1:21
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	20	16	4	.800	57:53	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:39	2:38
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	14:55	2:30
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:01	2:43
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	16:28	1:18
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:08	2:35
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	1	4	-1	0	11:00	1:22
T. Motte	C	0	1	1	0	2	3	-1	0	10:53	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:47	1:32
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:50	1:20
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	7:58	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+4	2	23:41	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+3	0	25:38	2:38
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	+1	0	22:42	1:22
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	19:34	0:02
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	12:43	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	33	30	3	.909	59:29	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamShayne Gostisbehere CAR Faces DET, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, DET 2.9	CAR 3, DET 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	CAR 30.3, DET 26.1	CAR 33, DET 21
Win chance	CAR 57%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET D. Larkin	3.0	2	0.88	2	33%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	1	0.77	2	30%	1
DET P. Kane	2.6	2	0.82	1	26%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	7	0.82	1	31%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	5	0.96	0	34%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	1	0.85	1	27%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.51	1	20%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	0	0.46	0	16%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.0	3	0.42	1	10%	1
CAR T. Hall	2.0	3	0.63	0	23%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.8	3	0.46	1	20%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.7	2	0.24	0	7%	0
CAR S. Morrow	1.7	2	0.35	0	6%	0
DET M. Seider	1.6	0	0.45	0	7%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	2	0.58	0	10%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.6	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	2	0.50	1	19%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	0	0.44	0	16%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.35	1	16%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	1	0.35	2	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	1	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.26	0	8%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.3	4	0.39	1	16%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	1	0.34	1	13%	1
DET C. Smith	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	1	0.42	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.18	1	5%	1
DET J. Berggren	1.1	2	0.32	0	15%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.31	0	15%	0
DET T. Motte	1.0	0	0.15	1	8%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	1	0.31	0	7%	0
CAR T. Jost	0.8	0	0.18	0	7%	0
DET J. Petry	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
DET J. Holl	0.4	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.