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Game Recap
CAR3
DET4
DET beat CAR 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.98 expected goals to 3.57. CAR outshot DET 34 to 18. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Gibson stopped 31 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| DET | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 1:32DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.43 xG
- 2nd 1:28DETA. DeBrincat0.20 xG
- 2nd 4:54DETA. Johansson0.19 xG
- 3rd 4:44CARJ. BlakePP0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:56CARS. JarvisSH0.12 xG
- 3rd 16:59CARS. GostisbeherePP0.15 xG
- OT 3:27DETA. Copp0.40 xG
Team Stats
CARDET
34Shots on goal18
3.57Expected goals2.98
81Shot attempts38
235v5 shots on goal10
2/5Power play1/4
23Hits19
11Blocked shots25
28Penalty minutes10
12Giveaways20
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.57 xGDET 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 21:45 | 5:50 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 5:43 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:38 | 2:21 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:39 | 2:17 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 5:46 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:38 | 5:29 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 1:19 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 2:14 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 1:14 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 10 | 18:48 | 5:49 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:16 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:02 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 63:14 | OT loss |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:12 | 4:25 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:16 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:32 | 4:29 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 4:06 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:31 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 4:21 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 2:08 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:56 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27:43 | 4:28 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:17 | 0:04 |
| A. Johansson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:46 | 0:20 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 26:16 | 1:12 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:31 | 1:49 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1T. Hall12:15L. Stankoven12:54J. Blake13:07
Line 2S. Aho12:19A. Svechnikov12:35N. Ehlers11:02
Line 3E. Robinson10:14J. Kotkaniemi10:23M. Jankowski8:53
Line 4J. Staal9:52J. Martinook10:31S. Jarvis10:22
Pair 1J. Slavin16:39J. Chatfield16:31
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:42A. Nikishin12:52
DET
Line 1J. Riemsdyk12:06L. Raymond12:33J. Compher12:26
Line 2M. Appleton10:24M. Rasmussen10:41E. Soderblom9:43
Line 3P. Kane11:21A. Copp11:43A. DeBrincat11:15
Pair 1S. Edvinsson20:13M. Seider18:05
Pair 2J. Bernard-Docker12:13A. Johansson13:46
Pair 3B. Chiarot18:15A. Sandin-Pellikka7:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, DET 2.9 | CAR 3, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.9, DET 24.4 | CAR 34, DET 18 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 3 | 0.82 | 3 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 0 | 0.71 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.