Game Recap: CAR 3, EDM 2 (OT), October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/OTTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

EDM2

CAR beat EDM 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.13 expected goals to 4.54. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Aho had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. F. Andersen stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	0	0	2	1	3
EDM	1	1	0	0	2

1st 3:34EDMC. McDavid0.08 xG
2nd 2:30EDMC. McDavidPP0.24 xG
3rd 0:44CARS. GostisbeherePP0.10 xG
3rd 13:29CARM. Necas0.16 xG
OT 4:53CARS. Aho0.18 xG

Team Stats

CAREDM

33Shots on goal35

4.13Expected goals4.54

66Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/4

25Hits14

13Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways17

10Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.13 xGEDM 4.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR33 on goal, 3 scored

EDM34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	3	1	0	+2	0	19:50	2:55
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	9	1	0	0	0	22:49	2:54
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:54	0:50
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	9:46	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	19:48	2:52
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	18:37	2:55
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:53	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:34	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:54	0:48
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:50	0:48
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:44	0:49
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	19:11	2:53
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	24:42	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	2	24:23	0:51
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	20:34	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:03	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	35	33	2	.943	64:49	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	25:37	5:36
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	2	23:53	5:43
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	23:05	5:24
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	21:25	5:31
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:50	1:41
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	16:57	1:39
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:24	0:07
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:22	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:11	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:41	1:34
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	9:05	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:13	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	5	0	3	-1	0	28:37	5:38
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	23:30	1:39
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:38	1:53
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:44	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	15:45	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	33	30	3	.909	64:44	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFrederik Andersen EDM First game against CAR since he left (his team until Jun 2026)33 saves on 35, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, EDM 3.1	CAR 3, EDM 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CAR 29.5, EDM 27.8	CAR 33, EDM 35
Win chance	EDM 50%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	5	1.50	2	37%	2
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	3	0.79	0	36%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	4	0.79	0	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	9	0.95	2	33%	1
CAR M. Necas	2.4	3	0.60	3	22%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.4	3	1.16	1	38%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	2	0.58	0	20%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.2	5	0.79	1	13%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.2	6	0.56	0	24%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.1	2	0.72	0	27%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	1	0.32	0	14%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.8	0	0.47	0	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	2	0.43	0	9%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	2	0.77	1	22%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.38	0	14%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.6	2	0.31	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.5	0	0.33	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.40	0	7%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.28	0	15%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.4	1	0.52	2	11%	1
CAR D. Orlov	1.4	2	0.40	0	9%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.4	2	0.42	0	14%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.3	1	0.34	1	13%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	0	0.43	0	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.2	0	0.26	0	9%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.1	1	0.27	0	8%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.0	2	0.23	1	10%	0
EDM B. Kulak	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.26	0	10%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
EDM D. Ryan	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
EDM T. Dermott	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.