Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CAR6
EDM3
CAR beat EDM 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 2.21. CAR outshot EDM 32 to 16. K. Miller led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). F. Andersen stopped 13 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 10:43EDMZ. Hyman0.13 xG
- 1st 11:20CARS. Gostisbehere0.09 xG
- 1st 12:06CARN. Ehlers0.02 xG
- 2nd 1:37CARJ. Martinook0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:20EDMV. Podkolzin0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:32CARJ. Blake0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:43EDMZ. HymanPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:39CARJ. StaalEN0.84 xG
- 3rd 19:31CARJ. Blake0.10 xG
Team Stats
CAREDM
32Shots on goal16
3.76Expected goals2.21
68Shot attempts36
255v5 shots on goal14
0/3Power play1/2
15Hits27
9Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways13
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.76 xGEDM 2.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:15 | 3:53 |
| J. Blake | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:37 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:06 | 4:01 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:08 | 3:57 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:41 | 1:35 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:35 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:42 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:14 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 4:02 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:13 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:28 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:33 | 0:47 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 4:01 | 1:16 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:54 | 0:10 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:25 | 0:31 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 3:37 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 59:07 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Hyman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:53 | 2:04 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:32 | 2:03 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:03 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:49 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:53 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:50 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:53 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:19 | 2:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:23 | 0:55 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:55 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Aho14:16S. Jarvis14:25A. Svechnikov13:48
Line 2T. Hall13:20L. Stankoven13:06J. Blake11:39
Line 3J. Staal11:31J. Martinook12:42N. Ehlers11:00
Line 4M. Jankowski10:14W. Carrier10:48E. Robinson10:21
Pair 1J. Slavin20:51J. Chatfield22:50
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere2:45A. Nikishin12:19
EDM
Line 1Z. Hyman16:24C. McDavid18:30L. Draisaitl17:20
Line 2J. Roslovic13:45M. Savoie12:47R. Nugent-Hopkins11:57
Line 3K. Kapanen11:44V. Podkolzin11:16J. Dickinson10:07
Line 4T. Frederic8:57C. Dach8:46A. Henrique5:36
Pair 1M. Ekholm17:35E. Bouchard19:35
Pair 3D. Nurse15:20T. Emberson12:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, EDM 3.3 | CAR 6, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.2, EDM 27.5 | CAR 32, EDM 16 |
| Win chance | CAR 50% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.4 | 2 | 1.59 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.7 | 0 | 1.35 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 3 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dach | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.