Game Recap: CAR 5, EDM 6 (SO), October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

Final/SOThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

EDM6

EDM beat CAR 6-5 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.99. L. Draisaitl led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). S. Walker had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Levi stopped 22 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	1	3	1	0	5
EDM	1	1	3	1	6

1st 8:07EDML. DraisaitlPP0.06 xG
1st 10:30CARJ. BlakePP0.25 xG
2nd 0:30CARS. Aho0.15 xG
2nd 4:20EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.10 xG
2nd 12:59CARS. Jarvis0.22 xG
2nd 17:53CARL. Stankoven0.22 xG
3rd 0:26EDMC. McDavid0.10 xG
3rd 2:51EDML. DraisaitlPP0.16 xG
3rd 17:20CARJ. Välimäki0.11 xG
3rd 18:32EDMC. McDavid0.02 xG

Team Stats

CAREDM

27Shots on goal21

2.99Expected goals2.87

54Shot attempts53

215v5 shots on goal11

1/2Power play3/5

30Hits17

15Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways20

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.99 xGEDM 2.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 5 scored

EDM20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	22:06	1:24
J. Martinook	LW	0	2	2	0	4	0	+1	0	15:07	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	18:13	0:42
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:36	1:24
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	17:27	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:04	1:32
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	15:15	0:41
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:47	1:24
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:34	0:34
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:22	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	9:38	0:00
S. Brind'Amour	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:10	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	0	15:25	1:25
J. Välimäki	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	2	14:15	0:42
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	25:49	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	24:22	0:42
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	5	2	1	+1	4	23:46	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	22:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	21	16	5	.762	65:00	OT loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	2	3	5	3	1	0	+1	0	25:02	3:28
L. Draisaitl	C	2	3	5	4	1	0	+1	0	24:25	3:40
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	0	20:58	3:41
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:31	3:39
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	20:06	1:04
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	18:05	1:07
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:08	0:11
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:33	0:11
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:17	1:00
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:17	0:11
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:07	1:09
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:28	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	29:59	3:43
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	15:19	0:13
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	28:45	1:14
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	22:21	0:03
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:16	0:11
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Levi	27	22	5	.815	64:12	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1W. Carrier16:42A. Svechnikov15:44S. Aho15:34

Line 2L. Stankoven15:55N. Ehlers14:22J. Blake15:14

Line 3J. Martinook12:42S. Jarvis11:07J. Kotkaniemi12:57

Line 4N. Deslauriers9:38E. Robinson9:00S. Brind'Amour7:27

Pair 1J. Slavin20:50J. Chatfield18:36

Pair 2K. Miller20:03S. Walker19:58

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere12:06J. Välimäki12:50

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:11C. McDavid17:23V. Podkolzin16:20

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins14:36K. Kapanen16:57Z. Hyman14:48

Line 3M. Joseph10:35O. Michaels11:24A. Formenton9:15

Line 4T. Frederic8:28I. Howard8:58C. Dach10:17

Pair 1C. Murphy21:19R. Shea23:51

Pair 2M. Ekholm13:08E. Bouchard21:55

Pair 3J. Walman14:15T. Emberson10:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	-105	-110	1	Under
EDM C. McDavid	2.5	-148	+125	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	+120	-135	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+125	-135	4	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	-135	+110	4	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+135	-156	1	Under
CAR S. Aho	2.5	+110	-125	3	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+115	-150	3	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	+118	-150	2	Under
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	1.5	+160	-200	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	+110	-135	3	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	1.5	-175	+150	5	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	+160	-170	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-110	-110	4	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-115	-105	1	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-160	+140	3	Over
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	+115	-130	0	Under

8 of 33 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+185	-200	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+140	-175	2	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+2000	-2800	1	Over
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+480	-600	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+130	-150	2	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+260	-330	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+300	-475	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+200	-230	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+230	-350	1	Over
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+1000	-2000	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+3500	-4000	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-205	+160	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+150	-200	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+370	-550	2	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+220	-295	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-150	+115	3	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+120	-155	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+105	-120	2	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+320	-375	0	Under

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+108	-130	5	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+130	-160	5	Over
CAR S. Aho	1.5	+180	-235	2	Over
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-175	+140	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-210	+175	1	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-132	+105	1	Over
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+220	-310	2	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+110	-130	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-115	-110	2	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-120	+105	2	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-105	-111	1	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+195	-230	1	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+112	-125	0	Under

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+225	-260	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+115	-135	3	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+135	-170	1	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+120	-160	3	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+200	-300	2	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+145	-190	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+320	-525	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
EDM D. Levi	26.5	-104	-128	22	Under
CAR B. Bussi	23.5	-105	+100	16	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+100	-140	2	Over
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	-140	+100	3	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	-120	-120	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-120	-115	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, EDM 3.0	CAR 5, EDM 6
Total goals	6.4	11
Shots on goal	CAR 30.1, EDM 24.6	CAR 27, EDM 21
Win chance	CAR 57%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	3	1.52	5	38%	2
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.5	4	1.31	5	40%	2
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	1	0.81	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	3	0.97	2	32%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	5	0.63	1	26%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.4	2	0.78	0	35%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.4	4	0.81	1	25%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	1	0.84	1	28%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.1	0	0.92	1	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.9	3	0.63	0	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	4	0.75	2	24%	1
EDM K. Kapanen	1.6	3	0.49	0	20%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	5	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.6	0	0.36	0	16%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.58	2	11%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	0	0.36	2	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.33	1	13%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	0	0.28	0	7%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.43	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	0	0.36	0	13%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.2	0	0.40	0	8%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.1	0	0.26	1	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.0	0	0.19	0	7%	0
EDM O. Michaels	1.0	0	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM C. Dach	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	1	0.29	0	10%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	1	0.17	0	9%	0
EDM C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.22	0	6%	0
EDM R. Shea	0.8	0	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.8	1	0.19	1	3%	1
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.4	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.