Game Recap: CAR 3, FLA 4 (SO), December 19, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/SOFri, Dec 19, 2025Every game that night

FLA4

FLA beat CAR 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 2.71. FLA outshot CAR 41 to 29. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Bennett had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	1	0	2	0	3
FLA	0	0	3	1	4

1st 11:53CARJ. Staal0.02 xG
3rd 1:27CARS. Aho0.13 xG
3rd 7:34CARS. AhoPP0.38 xG
3rd 10:16FLAB. Marchand0.40 xG
3rd 17:35FLAS. Bennett0.32 xG
3rd 19:18FLAS. Reinhart0.20 xG

Team Stats

CARFLA

29Shots on goal41

2.71Expected goals4.22

54Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal29

1/3Power play0/2

27Hits23

16Blocked shots14

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways14

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.71 xGFLA 4.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR26 on goal, 3 scored

FLA41 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	2	23:40	2:55
S. Jarvis	C	0	2	2	4	1	1	-1	0	20:59	2:55
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	2	2	2	7	0	-1	2	20:54	2:55
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	2	2	3	-1	0	17:12	1:21
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:51	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:12	1:57
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:46	0:23
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:53	0:23
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:21	0:13
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:32	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:05	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:03	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:16	2:55
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	21:34	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	6	2	-2	2	21:15	0:10
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	21:11	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	18:36	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:40	0:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	41	38	3	.927	65:00	OT loss
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	2	23:46	1:55
S. Bennett	C	1	1	2	10	3	1	+1	0	23:24	1:53
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	5	2	0	+1	0	22:51	1:53
E. Rodrigues	C	0	2	2	6	0	0	+2	0	19:47	0:26
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	19:39	1:34
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	17:49	0:45
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	2	14:51	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:44	0:26
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	14:04	0:24
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8:32	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:10	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	6:44	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	30:47	1:34
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	23:13	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:34	0:45
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:24	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:44	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	29	26	3	.897	61:21	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho15:28A. Svechnikov15:03S. Jarvis13:32

Line 2N. Ehlers14:05J. Blake13:52L. Stankoven13:08

Line 3J. Staal11:41E. Robinson11:06W. Carrier9:03

Line 4T. Hall10:41J. Kotkaniemi10:32M. Jankowski8:37

Pair 1J. Chatfield18:06K. Miller18:02

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:19A. Nikishin16:24

Pair 3J. Slavin14:14S. Walker15:52

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand14:45S. Bennett15:48C. Verhaeghe14:15

Line 2A. Greer14:42M. Samoskevich13:33E. Rodrigues13:34

Line 3S. Reinhart12:37A. Lundell12:59E. Luostarinen12:46

Line 4J. Boqvist8:32L. Kunin7:10N. Gregor6:44

Pair 1S. Jones20:54N. Mikkola19:57

Pair 2G. Forsling16:59A. Ekblad16:09

Pair 3J. Petry11:44U. Balinskis11:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownShayne Gostisbehere CAR Plays near home (born in Pembroke Pines)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.9, FLA 2.8	CAR 3, FLA 4
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	CAR 29.5, FLA 25.8	CAR 29, FLA 41
Win chance	CAR 51%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	10	0.74	2	29%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	4	0.78	2	30%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	5	0.92	2	36%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	2	0.67	0	24%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.4	4	0.86	2	29%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.65	2	24%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	1	0.75	1	27%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.83	2	30%	2
CAR S. Walker	2.2	2	0.31	0	8%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	1	0.67	0	21%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	0	0.55	0	22%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	3	0.41	0	16%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	2	0.42	0	15%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	2	0.73	1	10%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	6	0.47	2	17%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	1	0.36	0	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	0	0.49	0	15%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	2	0.37	0	7%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	1	0.32	0	6%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.4	2	0.43	0	10%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	2	0.39	1	16%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	3	0.24	0	7%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.3	3	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.24	0	13%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.3	3	0.37	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.27	1	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.2	0	0.30	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA N. Gregor	0.9	1	0.14	0	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.8	3	0.21	0	11%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.