Game Recap: CAR 2, LAK 7, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

LAK7

LAK beat CAR 7-2, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 3.03. CAR outshot LAK 36 to 25. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. D. Rittich stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	1	2
LAK	3	3	1	7

1st 3:03LAKA. Kempe0.07 xG
1st 14:39LAKA. KopitarPP0.04 xG
1st 19:55LAKA. Kuzmenko0.04 xG
2nd 5:58LAKT. Moore0.06 xG
2nd 6:49LAKT. Jeannot0.18 xG
2nd 8:41LAKQ. Byfield0.21 xG
2nd 14:17CARD. Orlov0.03 xG
3rd 18:03LAKK. Fiala0.12 xG
3rd 18:11CARM. Jankowski0.11 xG

Team Stats

CARLAK

36Shots on goal25

3.03Expected goals2.59

71Shot attempts46

335v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/2

15Hits23

10Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

32Giveaways25

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.03 xGLAK 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR35 on goal, 2 scored

LAK25 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	16:44	1:19
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:31	0:02
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:25	0:02
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:36	2:32
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	15:49	2:28
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	15:28	1:26
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:21	0:02
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	2	15:18	1:27
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:05	2:40
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	12:59	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:44	2:31
J. Jaaska	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	0	12:00	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	21:18	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-2	0	21:16	1:39
D. Orlov	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	20:45	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	21:13	1:29
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:51	2:21
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	15:29	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	25	18	7	.720	60:00	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	16:31	1:17
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	2	16:07	0:51
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	5	1	1	+1	0	15:40	1:10
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:57	1:12
T. Jeannot	LW	1	1	2	1	6	1	0	2	13:35	0:05
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:18	0:51
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:57	1:07
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:18	0:51
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:09	0:51
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	14:37	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	11:34	0:07
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	11:09	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	19:40	1:17
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	21:54	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	21:23	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+3	0	19:28	0:10
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:34	0:51
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	17:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	36	34	2	.944	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces LAK, his team until Apr 20234 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.9, LAK 2.7	CAR 2, LAK 7
Total goals	5.6	9
Shots on goal	CAR 27.9, LAK 26.3	CAR 36, LAK 25
Win chance	CAR 52%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	3	0.75	1	31%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.4	5	0.71	2	27%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.2	0	0.83	0	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.2	2	0.70	0	28%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	3	0.48	1	20%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	3	0.49	1	20%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	2	0.37	1	17%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.9	3	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	2	0.38	1	14%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	2	0.58	2	19%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.8	5	0.38	0	16%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	2	0.50	0	19%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	4	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	2	0.49	1	17%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	1	0.32	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.3	2	0.40	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.3	1	0.54	2	23%	1
CAR S. Morrow	1.3	3	0.24	1	5%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	0	0.36	0	13%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.2	1	0.31	0	5%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	0	0.45	2	10%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.2	3	0.31	1	7%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	1	0.66	2	21%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	1	0.22	1	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	4	0.29	1	12%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.8	1	0.23	1	11%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	0	0.21	1	8%	0
CAR T. Jost	0.8	2	0.15	0	6%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.7	1	0.15	2	8%	1
CAR J. Jaaska	0.6	0	0.20	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	1	0.11	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.