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Game Recap
CAR4
LAK3
CAR beat LAK 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.39. CAR outshot LAK 40 to 28. J. Staal led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Walker had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. B. Bussi stopped 25 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| LAK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 0:12CARJ. Staal0.13 xG
- 1st 3:58CARJ. Staal0.14 xG
- 2nd 3:43CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.23 xG
- 2nd 4:35LAKT. Moore0.12 xG
- 2nd 16:04LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.37 xG
- 3rd 11:02LAKK. Fiala0.08 xG
- OT 1:45CARS. Jarvis0.30 xG
Team Stats
CARLAK
40Shots on goal28
3.87Expected goals2.39
77Shot attempts61
335v5 shots on goal26
0/3Power play1/1
18Hits29
20Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways21
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.87 xGLAK 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:29 | 4:06 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:04 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:06 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:29 | 4:06 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:29 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:29 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:31 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 27:36 | 3:04 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:03 | 0:31 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | 1:29 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 61:45 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 | 0:09 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:47 | 0:09 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:09 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:09 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:09 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 61:45 | OT loss |
| P. Copley | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 2J. Staal13:28W. Carrier14:55J. Martinook12:08
Line 3T. Hall13:27J. Blake14:23L. Stankoven13:42
Line 4E. Robinson12:37J. Kotkaniemi12:06A. Svechnikov11:11
Pair 2M. Reilly18:49J. Chatfield21:10
Pair 3A. Nikishin20:23S. Gostisbehere2:37
LAK
Line 1K. Fiala18:36Q. Byfield17:03A. Kempe17:05
Line 2P. Danault15:41T. Moore15:43W. Foegele14:48
Line 3A. Laferriere12:52A. Kuzmenko10:55A. Turcotte9:10
Line 4J. Malott9:06S. Helenius10:07J. Armia14:48
Pair 1D. Doughty22:07B. Dumoulin23:25
Pair 2M. Anderson18:34C. Ceci17:41
Pair 3J. Edmundson14:42B. Clarke13:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, LAK 2.9 | CAR 4, LAK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.4, LAK 25.4 | CAR 40, LAK 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 53% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 0 | 0.87 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 5 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 6 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 5 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 6 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.5 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.4 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.