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Game Recap
CAR1
MIN2
MIN beat CAR 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 3.45. CAR outshot MIN 38 to 24. B. Burns had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 37 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 2:55MINY. Trenin0.11 xG
- 3rd 0:49MINV. Hinostroza0.08 xG
- 3rd 17:12CARS. Aho0.21 xG
Team Stats
CARMIN
38Shots on goal24
3.45Expected goals2.39
91Shot attempts42
285v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/3
8Hits19
11Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways7
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.45 xGMIN 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 2:17 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 2:40 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:18 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:47 | 2:36 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 2:37 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:17 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:14 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:06 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:06 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:06 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:40 | 1:22 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:35 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 1:19 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:21 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 56:53 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:01 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:35 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:39 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 3:26 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 2:24 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:16 | 3:37 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:23 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 2:34 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:20 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:59 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:50 | 3:41 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:36 | 0:01 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 2:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 38 | 37 | 1 | .974 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.0, MIN 2.5 | CAR 1, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.8, MIN 25.3 | CAR 38, MIN 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 3 | 0.97 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 8 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.