Game Recap: CAR 3, MIN 4 (SO), November 19, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CAR3

Final/SOWed, Nov 19, 2025Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat CAR 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.66 expected goals to 3.75. CAR outshot MIN 45 to 19. J. Blake led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Stankoven had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Wallstedt stopped 42 of 45.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	0	1	2	0	3
MIN	2	0	1	1	4

1st 1:54MINB. Faber0.05 xG
1st 11:46MINM. BoldySH0.05 xG
2nd 14:03CARJ. Blake0.10 xG
3rd 0:15MINM. Zuccarello0.15 xG
3rd 6:34CARS. Aho0.07 xG
3rd 18:54CARJ. Blake0.10 xG

Team Stats

CARMIN

45Shots on goal19

3.75Expected goals1.66

95Shot attempts33

395v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/1

12Hits18

4Blocked shots25

2Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.75 xGMIN 1.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR45 on goal, 3 scored

MIN19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	19:43	1:49
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:54	2:11
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	18:44	1:46
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	18:25	2:11
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:18	2:13
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:01	2:08
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	16:36	1:46
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:33	0:03
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:11	0:03
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:33	0:03
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:29	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	24:40	1:34
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	23:53	2:23
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	23:02	1:47
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	20:31	0:03
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:00	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	19	16	3	.842	64:15	OT loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	18:59	1:49
D. Yurov	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:20	0:11
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	21:37	1:49
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	19:46	1:58
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	20:22	1:50
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	16:31	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	15:17	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:04	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:46	0:11
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:29	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	10:37	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	25:45	0:02
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	24:25	0:10
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	21:01	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:20	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:09	2:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	45	42	3	.933	65:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven16:13J. Blake14:47N. Ehlers14:12

Line 2S. Aho12:47S. Jarvis13:39A. Svechnikov13:25

Line 3J. Staal13:02W. Carrier12:30J. Martinook12:39

Line 4T. Hall13:05E. Robinson12:08M. Jankowski11:15

Pair 1K. Miller18:49J. Nystrom19:50

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere18:07S. Walker20:18

Pair 3M. Reilly14:51A. Nikishin14:38

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello15:56K. Kaprizov16:16D. Yurov14:09

Line 2J. Ek13:35M. Boldy13:34M. Johansson13:16

Line 3M. Foligno13:18Y. Trenin14:45V. Hinostroza12:35

Line 4B. Jones11:44L. Ohgren10:37T. Pitlick9:46

Pair 1J. Brodin21:30B. Faber20:18

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:38J. Middleton18:22

Pair 3D. Hunt13:46Z. Buium15:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownK'Andre Miller CAR Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, MIN 2.8	CAR 3, MIN 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CAR 31.7, MIN 25.7	CAR 45, MIN 19
Win chance	CAR 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	2	1.21	1	43%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	3	0.74	0	27%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	2	0.93	1	31%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	5	0.89	1	32%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.72	1	25%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	3	0.70	1	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.4	4	0.35	1	10%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	1	0.73	1	28%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	2	0.83	2	22%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.9	4	0.47	2	18%	2
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	6	0.43	1	17%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.8	3	0.24	0	4%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.7	0	0.36	0	6%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	2	0.50	0	19%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	2	0.59	1	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.41	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	2	0.47	0	16%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	2	0.32	1	8%	1
CAR J. Nystrom	1.4	4	0.24	0	4%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	2	0.37	0	15%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	3	0.39	0	14%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	2	0.24	0	12%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	0	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	0	0.28	0	6%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.0	1	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.25	0	13%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Buium	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
MIN D. Yurov	0.9	2	0.24	2	12%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.05	0	5%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.6	0	0.12	0	5%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.4	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.