Game Recap: CAR 2, MTL 5, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

MTL5

MTL beat CAR 5-2, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 3.49. CAR outshot MTL 43 to 19. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Ehlers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Dobes stopped 41 of 43.

Team Stats

CARMTL

43Shots on goal19

3.49Expected goals3.01

87Shot attempts41

315v5 shots on goal14

1/2Power play0/3

19Hits22

11Blocked shots23

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.49 xGMTL 3.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR43 on goal, 2 scored

MTL17 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	-3	0	20:51	2:08
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	0	4	0	-2	0	17:54	2:10
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	-1	0	16:57	0:33
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	16:42	2:26
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	21:25	2:40
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	16:46	0:51
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:51	0:49
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:36	0:19
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:12	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:59	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:05	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	22:19	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	20:49	2:18
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	-2	2	19:53	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:20	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	2	19:10	0:41
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	18	14	4	.778	56:46	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	1	0	3	+2	2	19:30	4:08
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:33	4:08
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	11:58	3:10
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	+2	0	21:39	4:08
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:40	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:04	1:01
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:57	1:02
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:06	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:54	0:09
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:43	0:12
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	11:36	1:14
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:18	1:06
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	20:50	2:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	19:18	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	14:00	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	21:44	0:25
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	8	2	+1	2	20:30	0:04
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	18:54	3:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	43	41	2	.953	59:47	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven13:32J. Blake14:06T. Hall14:14

Line 2S. Aho13:06S. Jarvis13:13A. Svechnikov13:08

Line 3J. Staal11:18J. Martinook11:30N. Ehlers11:33

Line 4M. Jankowski8:53E. Robinson8:50W. Carrier8:05

Pair 1S. Walker17:44K. Miller17:00

Pair 2J. Slavin17:14J. Chatfield16:18

Pair 3M. Reilly12:22A. Nikishin14:29

MTL

Line 1A. Texier13:45Z. Bolduc14:55J. Evans13:28

Line 2J. Slafkovský13:56N. Suzuki14:04C. Caufield13:23

Line 3P. Danault10:49J. Anderson10:25B. Gallagher9:12

Line 4A. Newhook9:35O. Kapanen9:29I. Demidov8:48

Pair 1K. Guhle18:39A. Carrier15:21

Pair 2M. Matheson16:27N. Dobson15:49

Pair 3J. Struble14:00L. Hutson14:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWilliam Carrier CAR Plays near home (born in LaSalle)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, MTL 3.1	CAR 2, MTL 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	CAR 30.3, MTL 24.6	CAR 43, MTL 19
Win chance	CAR 54%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	2	0.88	2	34%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	5	0.80	1	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	5	0.80	1	27%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.93	0	31%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	0	0.74	1	27%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	1	0.78	2	25%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.0	4	0.57	0	22%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	2	1.01	1	27%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	4	0.30	0	8%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	2	0.50	0	19%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	2	0.59	0	21%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.7	2	0.52	1	11%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	4	0.31	0	7%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	3	0.48	0	10%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.5	1	0.73	2	18%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.4	2	0.45	1	18%	1
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	3	0.37	0	10%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.4	0	0.33	0	13%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.41	0	17%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	3	0.26	0	7%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	0	0.40	0	16%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.3	2	0.41	1	18%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.2	1	0.37	0	7%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.81	0	10%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.2	1	0.18	0	3%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.32	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.2	1	0.40	0	16%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.40	1	13%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.1	1	0.39	0	13%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.9	0	0.27	0	7%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.25	1	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	1	0.15	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.