Game Recap: CAR 3, MTL 2 (OT), May 25, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/OTMon, May 25, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL2

CAR beat MTL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.59 expected goals to 1.73. CAR outshot MTL 38 to 13. T. Hall had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. F. Andersen stopped 11 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	2	0	0	1	3
MTL	1	1	0	0	2

1st 8:24CARS. Gostisbehere0.16 xG
1st 15:28MTLM. Matheson0.07 xG
1st 16:22CART. Hall0.16 xG
2nd 4:43MTLL. HutsonPP0.21 xG
OT 14:06CARA. Svechnikov0.07 xG

Team Stats

CARMTL

38Shots on goal13

4.59Expected goals1.73

92Shot attempts46

305v5 shots on goal11

0/3Power play1/2

37Hits31

18Blocked shots33

6Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways21

13Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.59 xGMTL 1.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR39 on goal, 3 scored

MTL13 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	22:25	2:21
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	5	3	0	+1	0	21:25	3:42
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:56	3:39
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	7	2	2	+1	0	20:06	2:22
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	12:52	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:48	5:04
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:49	3:38
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:03	2:18
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	18:36	0:40
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	17:33	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	8	0	+1	0	11:37	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	4	2	2	+1	0	30:07	2:16
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:56	3:44
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	+1	2	27:26	0:16
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	+1	0	24:38	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	22:54	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	13	11	2	.846	73:58	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	22:23	1:48
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	5	2	+1	2	21:39	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	19:33	1:53
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	25:37	2:12
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:42	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	21:35	1:50
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:04	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	20:01	0:03
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:01	0:35
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	10:44	0:37
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:26	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	8:03	0:28
M. Matheson	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	29:23	0:13
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	28:55	1:54
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	2	25:34	0:32
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	24:59	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	-2	4	22:23	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	38	35	3	.921	74:06	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Blake18:40T. Hall17:16L. Stankoven17:45

Line 2A. Svechnikov17:43S. Aho16:37S. Jarvis15:51

Line 3J. Staal16:54J. Martinook17:04N. Ehlers16:37

Line 4M. Jankowski12:07E. Robinson11:59W. Carrier11:37

Pair 1K. Miller25:59S. Walker25:47

Pair 2J. Slavin22:16J. Chatfield21:44

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:04A. Nikishin15:45

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki22:18J. Slafkovský19:45C. Caufield17:02

Line 2J. Evans18:58I. Demidov19:09A. Newhook18:16

Line 3P. Danault16:03J. Anderson16:52A. Texier15:26

Line 4Z. Bolduc10:07J. Veleno8:26K. Dach7:35

Pair 1M. Matheson22:22N. Dobson22:56

Pair 2A. Carrier19:58K. Guhle21:25

Pair 3L. Hutson25:39J. Struble15:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWilliam Carrier CAR Plays near home (born in LaSalle)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, MTL 2.9	CAR 3, MTL 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	CAR 30.9, MTL 22.6	CAR 38, MTL 13
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	1	0.80	1	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	2	0.84	0	29%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.6	2	0.82	1	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	5	0.71	1	27%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	2	0.88	0	31%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	1	0.51	0	22%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.60	1	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	2	0.75	0	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	1.02	0	28%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	3	0.32	0	8%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	7	0.61	1	21%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	2	0.61	1	12%	1
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	0	0.68	1	20%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	1	0.51	0	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.6	3	0.47	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	3	0.30	0	7%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	4	0.44	1	9%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.34	0	18%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.40	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.80	1	10%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.2	1	0.35	1	7%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.24	1	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.43	1	14%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	0	0.39	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	3	0.25	0	7%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.0	1	0.34	0	14%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.29	1	14%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	0	0.29	0	12%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.9	0	0.27	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.30	0	6%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.