Game Recap: CAR 4, MTL 0, May 27, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalWed, May 27, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL0

CAR beat MTL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 6.74 expected goals to 0.85. CAR outshot MTL 43 to 18. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Stankoven had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. F. Andersen stopped 18 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	3	0	1	4
MTL	0	0	0	0

1st 14:59CARS. AhoPP0.05 xG
1st 16:07CARJ. Staal0.28 xG
1st 17:46CARL. Stankoven0.22 xG
3rd 18:06CARA. SvechnikovEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

CARMTL

43Shots on goal18

6.74Expected goals0.85

93Shot attempts44

365v5 shots on goal16

1/6Power play0/2

30Hits30

18Blocked shots23

24Penalty minutes32

14Giveaways18

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 6.74 xGMTL 0.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR42 on goal, 4 scored

MTL17 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	17:05	5:24
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:20	5:32
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	6	4	0	+1	0	17:18	4:31
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	16:46	3:50
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	16:21	1:24
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	7	1	0	+1	0	14:16	2:41
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:34	4:35
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	15:33	4:01
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	15:21	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	+1	0	11:27	0:08
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10	10:43	0:08
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	10	10:41	0:53
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	1	3	0	0	16:08	4:20
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	+2	0	24:41	4:17
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	18:44	0:19
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	+3	0	20:40	0:10
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:41	0:02
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	18	18	0	1.000	60:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	3	2	0	-1	0	22:59	2:43
C. Caufield	RW	2	3	0	-1	0	19:14	2:33
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	0	-2	0	18:52	2:36
J. Evans	C	1	2	0	-1	0	18:29	0:00
A. Newhook	C	1	1	0	-1	0	18:17	0:39
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	2	3	0	0	17:18	2:32
P. Danault	C	1	1	1	-1	2	14:16	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	2	1	1	-1	2	11:27	0:51
J. Anderson	RW	2	0	3	-1	4	11:09	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	2	1	0	2	8:45	0:58
A. Texier	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	6:30	0:34
J. Veleno	C	0	3	0	0	0	6:05	0:18
A. Carrier	D	0	0	7	0	0	23:22	0:00
M. Matheson	D	2	1	0	0	2	23:05	0:14
L. Hutson	D	1	1	0	-3	0	21:04	2:43
N. Dobson	D	2	4	2	-1	0	20:05	0:49
K. Guhle	D	0	3	3	0	10	17:27	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	3	2	-2	10	11:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	42	39	3	.929	59:01	Loss
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho13:04A. Svechnikov12:37S. Jarvis11:23

Line 2J. Staal12:19J. Martinook12:39N. Ehlers10:52

Line 3L. Stankoven11:14J. Blake12:35T. Hall11:32

Line 4W. Carrier11:19M. Jankowski9:30E. Robinson10:17

Pair 1S. Walker16:55K. Miller18:02

Pair 2J. Slavin17:25J. Chatfield17:22

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:39A. Nikishin12:06

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:30C. Caufield15:42A. Newhook12:59

Line 2I. Demidov14:56J. Evans12:33J. Slafkovský14:46

Line 3P. Danault10:57J. Anderson10:16Z. Bolduc10:36

Line 4K. Dach7:47J. Veleno5:47A. Texier5:56

Pair 1M. Matheson18:13N. Dobson15:32

Pair 2A. Carrier17:49K. Guhle12:36

Pair 3J. Struble11:54L. Hutson17:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJakub Dobes MTL Turns 25 that day39 saves on 42
HometownWilliam Carrier CAR Plays near home (born in LaSalle)5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, MTL 2.8	CAR 4, MTL 0
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	CAR 31.4, MTL 22.0	CAR 43, MTL 18
Win chance	CAR 59%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	2	0.81	0	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	1	0.87	2	30%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.6	2	0.82	0	34%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	6	0.74	1	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	2	0.88	1	31%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	7	0.53	1	23%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.3	4	0.63	1	23%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	0	0.75	0	25%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.1	3	0.64	0	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	2	0.33	0	9%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	1.03	0	28%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.9	1	0.62	2	12%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.7	1	0.71	0	20%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.7	1	0.52	0	22%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	1	0.30	0	7%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.6	2	0.47	0	10%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.47	1	9%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	2	0.26	1	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.44	1	18%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	2	0.35	0	18%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.81	0	10%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.2	2	0.37	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	1	0.45	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	0	0.25	0	7%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.1	1	0.41	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	5	0.22	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	2	0.30	0	14%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.0	2	0.33	0	14%	0
MTL K. Dach	0.9	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL K. Guhle	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.7	0	0.30	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.