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Game Recap
CAR6
FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
MTL4

CAR beat MTL 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.48 expected goals to 2.05. CAR outshot MTL 34 to 20. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Bussi stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR2226
MTL3014
  1. 1st 2:25CART. Hall0.60 xG
  2. 1st 3:23MTLZ. Bolduc0.29 xG
  3. 1st 4:27MTLN. Suzuki0.06 xG
  4. 1st 9:22CARE. Robinson0.08 xG
  5. 1st 12:54MTLZ. BolducPP0.18 xG
  6. 2nd 3:56CARS. AhoPP0.17 xG
  7. 2nd 13:24CARM. Jankowski0.13 xG
  8. 3rd 12:21CART. Hall0.10 xG
  9. 3rd 16:57MTLJ. Slafkovský0.29 xG
  10. 3rd 18:45CARA. SvechnikovEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

CARMTL
34Shots on goal20
4.48Expected goals2.05
68Shot attempts38
245v5 shots on goal10
1/5Power play1/6
30Hits20
9Blocked shots16
14Penalty minutes14
15Giveaways17
2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.48 xGMTL 2.05 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCAR goal, 2:25MTL goal, 3:23MTL goal, 4:27CAR goal, 9:22MTL goal, 12:54CAR goal, 3:56CAR goal, 13:24CAR goal, 12:21MTL goal, 16:57CAR goal, 18:45

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR33 on goal, 6 scored
MTL20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC1233200219:565:01
T. HallLW202430+2413:071:12
M. JankowskiLW112210+2012:371:07
E. RobinsonLW112110+108:030:00
A. SvechnikovRW1013400017:094:52
N. EhlersLW0113000015:533:58
J. BlakeRW011200+1215:455:21
L. StankovenC000102+1217:421:11
J. MartinookLW0003400216:550:12
J. StaalC0001400016:491:00
W. CarrierLW000140-1012:100:00
J. KotkaniemiC000010006:530:37
J. SlavinD022113+2021:170:00
J. ChatfieldD011311+2022:020:01
S. GostisbehereD0111100017:395:06
K. MillerD0003110022:081:04
S. WalkerD000112-1220:200:13
M. ReillyD000110+1010:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi20164.80060:00Win
P. Kochetkov000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC112220+1221:495:27
C. KreiderLW022101+1014:305:13
Z. BolducRW202321+1014:071:31
A. TexierLW022020+1011:501:33
J. SlafkovskýLW101211-1219:435:27
A. NewhookC0110000016:381:29
P. DanaultC0113000013:500:18
C. CaufieldRW0001110221:455:32
J. EvansC000001-3014:190:00
J. AndersonRW000010-2012:300:00
K. DachC000013-109:381:12
F. XhekajLW000130-308:480:00
L. HutsonD011201+1029:215:54
N. DobsonD000230-1224:171:15
M. MathesonD000214-2222:320:21
A. CarrierD000101+2218:110:00
A. XhekajD000031-229:120:08
J. StrubleD000001-209:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes33285.84857:13Loss
S. Montembeault000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Staal10:47J. Martinook12:13N. Ehlers10:03
Line 2A. Svechnikov10:55S. Aho10:56W. Carrier11:37
Line 3T. Hall10:35L. Stankoven12:09J. Blake9:20
Line 4E. Robinson6:57J. Kotkaniemi5:50M. Jankowski7:02
Pair 1S. Walker14:24K. Miller15:00
Pair 2J. Slavin13:13J. Chatfield14:20
Pair 3M. Reilly9:57S. Gostisbehere11:57

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki11:07C. Caufield12:49C. Kreider7:55
Line 2A. Texier8:43Z. Bolduc11:04P. Danault8:04
Line 3J. Evans10:58J. Anderson9:35F. Xhekaj8:46
Line 4K. Dach7:39A. Newhook9:55J. Slafkovský11:17
Pair 1M. Matheson16:22N. Dobson16:58
Pair 2A. Carrier13:55L. Hutson18:22
Pair 3J. Struble6:58A. Xhekaj6:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 18 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-120+1103Over
MTL C. Caufield2.5-135+1101Under
CAR J. Blake2.5+110-1352Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+120-1521Under
CAR N. Ehlers2.5-110-1153Over
CAR S. Aho2.5-118-1103Over
MTL A. Newhook1.5-105-1200Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+130-1600Under
MTL C. Kreider1.5-115-1101Under
CAR J. Martinook1.5+100-1303Over
MTL J. Slafkovský1.5-160+1252Over
CAR J. Staal1.5-130+1051Under
MTL L. Hutson1.5-110-1252Over
MTL M. Matheson1.5-110-1202Over
MTL N. Suzuki1.5-175+1352Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-125+1101Under
CAR S. Walker1.5-110-1151Under
CAR T. Hall1.5-135+1154Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.4, MTL 2.8CAR 6, MTL 4
Total goals6.210
Shots on goalCAR 31.4, MTL 22.1CAR 34, MTL 20
Win chanceCAR 60%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.710.83034%0
CAR A. Svechnikov2.530.75127%1
CAR L. Stankoven2.510.62025%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.430.83127%0
CAR S. Aho2.430.87330%1
CAR J. Blake2.220.69123%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.120.99227%1
CAR T. Hall2.040.60220%2
MTL J. Slafkovský2.020.67123%1
CAR S. Walker1.810.3108%0
MTL A. Newhook1.600.48120%0
CAR J. Staal1.610.45019%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.510.59112%0
MTL N. Dobson1.520.44010%0
CAR J. Martinook1.530.35014%0
CAR J. Slavin1.510.3027%0
MTL C. Kreider1.410.53225%0
CAR W. Carrier1.410.32014%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.430.2717%0
CAR K. Miller1.330.4409%0
MTL J. Anderson1.300.30016%0
CAR M. Reilly1.310.2004%0
MTL M. Matheson1.220.3708%0
CAR E. Robinson1.210.28212%1
MTL K. Dach1.200.37015%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.200.30012%0
MTL L. Hutson1.220.7619%0
MTL J. Evans1.100.39013%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.130.35215%2
MTL A. Texier1.000.30212%0
MTL P. Danault1.030.36112%0
CAR M. Jankowski0.920.27213%1
MTL F. Xhekaj0.910.2209%0
MTL A. Carrier0.610.2705%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.400.0702%0
MTL J. Struble0.400.1403%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.