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Game Recap
CAR2
NSH5
NSH beat CAR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.37 expected goals to 1.83. J. Marchessault led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Slavin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 13:34NSHS. Stamkos0.04 xG
- 2nd 11:45NSHJ. Marchessault0.16 xG
- 3rd 0:30NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 2:52NSHM. Jankowski0.14 xG
- 3rd 4:37CARJ. Staal0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:17CARS. Aho0.17 xG
- 3rd 16:48NSHJ. MarchessaultEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
CARNSH
27Shots on goal25
1.83Expected goals3.37
54Shot attempts47
225v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play1/2
29Hits25
10Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes4
24Giveaways18
9Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 1.83 xGNSH 3.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:18 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:18 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:42 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:19 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 1:18 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:03 | 0:41 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:42 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:42 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 1:15 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:45 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 59:25 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:15 | 1:09 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:14 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:13 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:09 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:30 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:49 | 0:54 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:55 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:56 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:15 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:12 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:59 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:14 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, NSH 2.9 | CAR 2, NSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.0, NSH 28.0 | CAR 27, NSH 25 |
| Win chance | CAR 52% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 0 | 0.90 | 3 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.7 | 5 | 0.75 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 1.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.