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Game Recap
CAR4
NSH1
CAR beat NSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 2.29. CAR outshot NSH 37 to 26. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). E. Robinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 13:00CARJ. Blake0.07 xG
- 3rd 2:43CARS. AhoPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 4:33CARS. Jarvis0.08 xG
- 3rd 8:06NSHF. Forsberg0.67 xG
- 3rd 19:15CARS. AhoEN0.49 xG
Team Stats
CARNSH
37Shots on goal26
4.04Expected goals2.29
69Shot attempts54
245v5 shots on goal20
1/4Power play0/3
11Hits23
14Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes8
9Giveaways17
7Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.04 xGNSH 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:20 | 4:57 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 4:56 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 4:02 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 4:55 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:02 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:49 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:45 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:49 | 1:56 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:01 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:44 | 0:01 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:10 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:28 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:07 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:01 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 4:50 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 59:57 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:06 | 3:44 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 3:30 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:58 | 4:10 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 3:14 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:03 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:35 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:35 | 2:13 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 1:55 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:27 | 1:24 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 22:28 | 3:26 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 21:30 | 2:15 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:52 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:04 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 57:58 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Jarvis13:59S. Aho12:38A. Svechnikov11:58
Line 2L. Stankoven11:18J. Blake12:03N. Ehlers12:27
Line 3T. Hall10:53M. Jankowski10:27E. Robinson11:38
Line 4J. Staal10:35W. Carrier11:48J. Martinook4:57
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere14:21J. Chatfield15:43
Pair 3J. Slavin11:39A. Nikishin13:10
NSH
Line 1M. McCarron12:43C. Smith13:03R. Schaefer10:01
Line 2R. O'Reilly12:52F. Forsberg13:47L. Evangelista13:04
Line 3E. Haula9:39M. Bunting11:22J. Marchessault4:03
Line 4F. Svechkov12:05M. Wood8:49S. Stamkos12:48
Pair 3N. Hague14:50N. Blankenburg15:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, NSH 2.6 | CAR 4, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.8, NSH 24.9 | CAR 37, NSH 26 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.8 | 4 | 0.90 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.8 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 4 | 0.97 | 3 | 33% | 2 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.4 | 4 | 0.66 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.