Game Recap: CAR 1, NSH 4, November 3, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR1

FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat CAR 4-1, with the chances close: 3.52 expected goals to 3.12. CAR outshot NSH 30 to 20. R. Josi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Jankowski had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Saros stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
NSH	1	1	2	4

1st 12:32NSHN. Perbix0.10 xG
2nd 3:29NSHR. Josi0.11 xG
2nd 10:28CARJ. Blake0.09 xG
3rd 5:40NSHA. Edstrom0.05 xG
3rd 19:19NSHR. ColtonEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

CARNSH

30Shots on goal20

3.12Expected goals3.52

70Shot attempts54

255v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play0/2

25Hits18

18Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways14

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.12 xGNSH 3.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR28 on goal, 1 scored

NSH20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	19:29	2:42
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	1	3	0	0	17:18	1:16
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	20:51	2:44
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	20:30	1:17
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:57	2:38
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	16:33	1:22
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:04	2:43
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:58	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:48	1:09
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:05	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	0	8:06	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:45	2:49
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	0	20:03	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:41	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	-3	2	18:26	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:58	1:11
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:44	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	19	16	3	.842	57:12	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	16:47	2:45
R. Colton	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	14:20	0:56
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	17:55	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	0	1	2	8	1	+2	0	16:49	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:23	2:19
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	16:34	2:50
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:18	2:47
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	14:32	1:13
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	13:12	1:41
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	12:38	0:17
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	11:24	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:49	1:10
R. Josi	D	1	1	2	3	1	3	+1	0	24:30	2:47
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+2	0	21:46	1:15
N. Perbix	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:44	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:57	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:59	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Blake15:10N. Ehlers15:00L. Stankoven15:00

Line 2M. Jankowski12:39J. Martinook13:15S. Jarvis14:14

Line 3W. Carrier11:32S. Aho12:35A. Svechnikov11:33

Line 4E. Robinson8:48J. Kotkaniemi9:39N. Deslauriers8:06

Pair 1S. Walker16:55K. Miller17:22

Pair 2J. Slavin16:33J. Chatfield15:46

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:16J. Välimäki15:37

NSH

Line 1A. Edstrom14:03J. Drury14:29R. Colton12:18

Line 2R. O'Reilly13:44M. Bourque12:31S. Stamkos12:42

Line 3N. Hoglander12:21S. Wright12:56F. Forsberg13:21

Line 4A. Kerfoot9:42R. Schaefer10:38V. Pinchuk8:39

Pair 1R. Josi18:56A. Wilsby17:50

Pair 2B. Skjei17:06N. Perbix17:20

Pair 3J. Struble14:20D. Hunt13:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	+100	-115	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-105	-120	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+130	-150	1	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+122	-155	3	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+130	-155	3	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+124	-155	3	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	+108	-125	4	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+115	-135	1	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+140	-175	3	Over
NSH A. Edstrom	1.5	+160	-160	2	Over
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	+115	-140	1	Under
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	+102	-130	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	+100	-130	3	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	1.5	+121	-145	4	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-122	-105	1	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-115	+105	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-115	-110	1	Under
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-135	+120	2	Over
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	+125	-137	0	Under

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+700	-1200	1	Over
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+525	-1000	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+184	-250	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
NSH D. Hunt	0.5	+2600	-4000	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1400	-1600	0	Under
NSH J. Struble	0.5	+2400	-4000	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+370	-500	0	Under
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2100	-3500	1	Over
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-900	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+550	-800	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+190	-240	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under

6 of 23 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+130	-159	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+290	-420	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+135	-148	2	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+125	-154	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+265	-370	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+175	-209	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+300	-440	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+250	-325	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+110	-130	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+450	-675	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+330	-450	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+102	-115	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+126	-155	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+120	-154	1	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+280	-380	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+370	-530	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+280	-370	0	Under

7 of 23 overs hit (30%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+140	2	Over
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-160	+130	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+175	-190	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-120	+100	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-170	+140	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+255	-340	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+200	-230	2	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-120	-103	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-148	+120	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-210	+167	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+100	-115	1	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-130	+104	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+195	-265	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+190	-245	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+170	-218	0	Under

0 of 21 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+200	-275	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+360	-600	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+240	-280	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+200	-275	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+250	-350	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+360	-600	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+200	-240	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+210	-295	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+340	-750	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+360	-600	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	27.5	-106	-115	29	Over
CAR P. Kochetkov	21.5	-112	-110	16	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.6, NSH 2.7	CAR 1, NSH 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	CAR 32.2, NSH 23.6	CAR 30, NSH 20
Win chance	CAR 64%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	0	0.80	0	29%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	0	0.86	2	32%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	1	0.77	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	4	0.94	0	31%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.4	3	0.64	1	27%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.3	1	0.79	1	26%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	3	0.78	0	33%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.2	3	0.77	0	24%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.1	3	0.68	2	15%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.0	1	0.44	2	20%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.8	2	0.35	0	10%	0
NSH M. Bourque	1.8	3	0.48	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.77	0	25%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	1	0.39	0	15%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.60	1	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	0	0.35	0	14%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.31	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	1	0.33	0	14%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.4	4	0.45	0	21%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	0	0.37	1	15%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.4	2	0.33	1	18%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.4	3	0.41	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	2	0.27	0	7%	0
NSH S. Wright	1.3	0	0.44	0	19%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.2	2	0.32	0	15%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	0	0.32	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
NSH B. Skjei	0.9	0	0.28	1	7%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.8	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	3	0.16	0	9%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.8	2	0.14	0	7%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.8	1	0.32	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.7	1	0.19	1	4%	1
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.4	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.