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Game Recap
CAR3
NYI4
NYI beat CAR 4-3, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.21. J. Pageau led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Svechnikov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. I. Sorokin stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NYI | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 15:43CARA. SvechnikovPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 6:05NYIJ. Pageau0.23 xG
- 2nd 9:23CARA. SvechnikovPP0.27 xG
- 2nd 10:06NYIO. Wahlstrom0.08 xG
- 2nd 16:16NYIM. Tsyplakov0.30 xG
- 2nd 18:55NYIB. Horvat0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:11CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.06 xG
Team Stats
CARNYI
31Shots on goal25
2.21Expected goals2.89
83Shot attempts47
185v5 shots on goal20
2/3Power play0/2
17Hits25
8Blocked shots32
4Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways14
12Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.21 xGNYI 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:19 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:09 | 3:22 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 3:22 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 3:19 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 1:17 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:03 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:17 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 11:49 | 1:17 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 1:17 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:31 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:35 | 1:11 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 56:06 | Loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:47 |
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:07 | 1:57 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:09 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:09 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 1:38 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:45 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 15:56 | 1:41 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:06 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:16 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:10 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:51 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25:06 | 0:04 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 24:24 | 2:05 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:05 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 2:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, NYI 2.7 | CAR 3, NYI 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 32.1, NYI 26.7 | CAR 31, NYI 25 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.7 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 7 | 0.79 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.6 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 3 | 0.98 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.4 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 1.9 | 6 | 0.55 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.