Game Recap: CAR 2, NYI 3 (OT), January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR2

Final/OTSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat CAR 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.69 expected goals to 3.20. A. Romanov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Romanov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. I. Sorokin stopped 1 of 1.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	2	0	0	0	2
NYI	1	0	1	1	3

1st 5:18CARJ. Roslovic0.04 xG
1st 6:30CARS. Aho0.06 xG
1st 17:53NYIA. Romanov0.04 xG
3rd 6:26NYIA. Lee0.15 xG
OT 2:03NYIB. Nelson0.16 xG

Team Stats

CARNYI

27Shots on goal27

3.20Expected goals1.69

67Shot attempts55

215v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/3

19Hits38

17Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes7

5Giveaways7

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.20 xGNYI 1.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 2 scored

NYI25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	20:54	1:31
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	7	13:32	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	8:12	0:29
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	18:54	1:31
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	18:07	1:31
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:29	0:29
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:18	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	16:49	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:42	1:31
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	12:31	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:36	0:29
J. Jaaska	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:10	0:29
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	21:49	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	19:44	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	23:43	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:33	0:29
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	2	18:00	1:31
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	27	24	3	.889	61:42	OT loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:19	5:10
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	21:05	5:02
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	19:33	3:45
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	19:19	1:03
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	1	7	0	+1	0	14:21	0:27
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	21:08	5:20
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	17:27	0:56
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	5	14:43	0:44
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:05	0:29
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	8:07	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	7:03	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:56	0:14
A. Romanov	D	1	1	2	4	4	1	+2	0	26:41	0:44
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	24:12	0:51
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	25:07	5:15
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	3	4	3	-1	0	24:10	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	16:38	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	26	24	2	.923	60:00
I. Sorokin	1	1	0	1.000	2:03	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTony DeAngelo NYI Faces CAR, his team until May 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, NYI 2.5	CAR 2, NYI 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	CAR 31.5, NYI 25.7	CAR 27, NYI 27
Win chance	CAR 60%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR M. Rantanen	2.9	5	1.23	0	40%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.7	2	0.72	1	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	1	0.96	1	32%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.76	0	27%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	1	0.59	1	26%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.4	2	0.80	0	21%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.4	2	0.79	0	29%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.3	2	0.47	0	10%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.2	2	0.70	1	29%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	1.8	2	0.55	1	22%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	0	0.50	0	19%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.46	0	16%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.6	1	0.42	1	8%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.6	1	0.23	0	5%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	3	0.54	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	0	0.43	0	7%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.6	3	0.36	0	19%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	0	0.44	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.27	1	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	0	0.40	1	16%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	3	0.43	1	17%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.4	2	0.37	0	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	2	0.48	0	21%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	3	0.42	0	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	1	0.29	1	4%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.1	4	0.25	2	4%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	0	0.40	0	18%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	1	0.21	1	10%	0
NYI P. Engvall	0.9	0	0.22	0	10%	0
CAR J. Jaaska	0.8	1	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	3	0.16	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0
NYI I. George	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.